75
359
1.1k
2025
21%
chance

Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?

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This question will resolve as Yes if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in calendar year 2024.

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The PHEIC system was created in 2005 [1]. There have been seven PHEIC declared since then [1]. So model this as a Poisson distribution with intensity 7/19 per year; hence the probability of at least one PHEIC in 2024 is ~31%.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern#Background

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