[ACX 2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
[ACX 2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
resolved by
121
1.3kṀ57k
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between December 23rd, 2023 to December 31, 2024. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as No if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by 2025.

The ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders


Sort by:

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy