Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between December 23rd, 2023 to December 31, 2024. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as No if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by 2025.
The ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
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Seems strange that people think there's a 61% chance of peace talks, but only a 17% chance of an implemented ceasefire...
@PS So, Russia does have a noted strategy of frozen conflicts. I think it's entirely plausible they might enter into negotiations so they can see what's on offer, but are unlikely to actually take any offers over simply taking the status quo post(ish) bellum, where they have de facto control of some regions and have Ukraine in a difficult position to defend if they get obstreperous again (like, if they make noises about joining NATO, etc.)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?