[ACX 2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
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Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if any members of the Electoral College vote for a candidate other than the candidate to whom they had pledged their vote in the 2024 presidential election, and their vote is not invalidated, according to reporting by credible sources.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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I counted on Wikipedia and in the 19 elections from 1948 to 2020 (inclusive), 10 had faithless electors, or ~53%.

@pietrokc I think the campaigns got a lot more strict about vetting their electors to make sure they aren't faithless after 2016, so it should be a lot less likely now than it has been historically.

Slightly OT, but why are they called faithless? Unfaithful seems like the right word to me.

@ThomasTwenhoven In this situation, "faithless" would be more commonly used (i.e. they've broken faith). As to why English is like this . . . well, that's a long story.

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