[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?
310
4.4k
2.2k
2025
56%
chance

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

If Benjamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration of calendar year 2024, this question will resolve as YES on January 1, 2025. If he ceases to be Prime Minster at any point during 2024, this question resolves NO.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/18/israels-gantz-demands-gaza-post-war-plan-threathens-to-quit-govt

Israel’s war cabinet member Benny Gantz has threatened to quit the government of Benjamin Netanyahu should the prime minister fail to present a post-war plan for Gaza by June 8.

bought Ṁ100 NO from 63% to 60%

Tensions with Iran are quite bullish for this market IMO

@SemioticRivalry Those tensions were short-lived though. The real question is whether there is an opportunity for an election in time to replace him. He will lose to Gantz in the next election. But the election certainly won't be held until after Rafah. On that note it quite likely won't be held until the Israelis in the North return to their homes and Hezbollah is deterred.

@nathanwei Bibi is a master of stalling

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 44% order

@Shump I put up some limit orders if you are interested - happy to increase them too after a little googling if you take some of these.

I'm betting on the basis that every time I have thought "this has to be the end of Bibi", it hasn't been.

bought Ṁ125 NO

@RobertCousineau Thanks, I think I had enough. My credence isn't actually much lower than the market.

Netanyahu is a wizard, but I do think he is running out of tricks. I was just betting on the fact that this market hasn't updated over the developments from last month. Things are shaky on mutiple fronts.

@SemioticRivalry you are a good predictor. What do you know that I don’t know here?

@JimAusman I don't have any access to non public information, just my read of the political situation is that there are a lot of parties incentivized to avoid elections anytime soon

bought Ṁ200 YES

@JimAusman it would probably take a 65/120 vote majority to actually remove him for procedural reasons. His original coalition had 64, and the unity government has more. Even if Ganz wants to remove him (which he might, but has not openly endorsed) he's still ten votes short and all of the 64 potential votes have strong reason not to go for it since they'd probably lose power in a new government.

bought Ṁ30 NO

If he survives 2024, when will he leave office?

/SimonGrayson/when-will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-rep

Metaculus has this at 44 percent.

bought Ṁ50 NO at 49%
predicts NO

Arbitrage:

@galaga I’m not sure that that’s actually much of an arbitrage opportunity; it’s possible that he is removed from office, then comes back before the end of the year.

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@JimAusman I doubt he would win an election held in 2024, but the next election isn't scheduled until 2026 (unless he gets a no confidence votes, but that would require at least four members of his coalition to turn against him, and most of them would do much worse in a new election).

predicts NO

@ShakedKoplewitz Do people like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir strike you as master strategic thinkers who would never do anything bad for their own political careers? Remember when they veto'd Ra'am in the coalition and paved the way for the change government?

And do you really think if, say, Gallant, Barkat, and 2 others in Likud broke off and formed a new party, they would not make it into the Knesset, thus getting 4+ seats?

predicts YES

@nathanwei Ben Gvir and smotrich might, but bibi's actively appeasing them to prevent that and that's probably going to be enough for them.

Gallant and barkat I think still want to lead Likud after Bibi instead of yet another splinter party, so don't want to be seen as backstabbing him.

I don't think this is impossible to happen anyway (which is why I'm not going harder on this market), but both would be significant barriers.

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