Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
If Benjamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration of calendar year 2024, this question will resolve as YES on January 1, 2025. If he ceases to be Prime Minster at any point during 2024, this question resolves NO.
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Related questions
Vox Future Perfect says 25 percent chance
@JimAusman I doubt he would win an election held in 2024, but the next election isn't scheduled until 2026 (unless he gets a no confidence votes, but that would require at least four members of his coalition to turn against him, and most of them would do much worse in a new election).
@ShakedKoplewitz Do people like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir strike you as master strategic thinkers who would never do anything bad for their own political careers? Remember when they veto'd Ra'am in the coalition and paved the way for the change government?
And do you really think if, say, Gallant, Barkat, and 2 others in Likud broke off and formed a new party, they would not make it into the Knesset, thus getting 4+ seats?
@nathanwei Ben Gvir and smotrich might, but bibi's actively appeasing them to prevent that and that's probably going to be enough for them.
Gallant and barkat I think still want to lead Likud after Bibi instead of yet another splinter party, so don't want to be seen as backstabbing him.
I don't think this is impossible to happen anyway (which is why I'm not going harder on this market), but both would be significant barriers.