Resolves to the political party of the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election, as decided by the below market, unless the winner runs as an independent (ie, does not get nominated by either the Democratic or Republican parties).
In that case, regardless of the candidate's party affiliation, the market will resolve Other.
Manifold Politics reserves the right to add additional answers to this market, in case that appears helpful, but all such answers can be bet on currently by voting Yes on Other.
1,000
3.00@CryptoNeoLiberalist It's okay if you mark an X instead of a V next to Trump's name they'll read that as a vote for Biden
@CryptoNeoLiberalist Biden dropped out of the race and Kamala Harris is now the Democratic Party's candidate. Biden will not show up on the ticket.
@Quroe Thank you for an explanation about it, I suppose I have missed this in my past dealings. Thank God for the Sober October I am now getting my bearings straight on it here.
Closing my position in this market since I think the longshorman union strike is going to negatively reflect on biden and therefore harris. I suspect we've found our october surprise. I don't think this puts kamala harris below coinflip odds since the president has a lot of latitude to end or delay the strike but 53% is probably a few percentage points too high.
@ZaneMiller yeah, I'm pretty sure the author meant the party that nominated the candidate. It is not written clearly in general, but the specific case asked about above is clearly called out in its own sentence.
@FoxKHTML I wonder who will win, the law student turned attorney general turned senator turned vice-president or the guy who wants to start a paramilitary group, doesn't know the difference between trade deficit and public debt, and thinks asylum seekers come from mental asylums? I actually don't know, Americans have been acting really weird lately.
@FoxKHTML Neither.
Trump doesn't drive, so you will be chauffeuring the guy around, not going to a road trip with him. He'd probably insist on sitting in the back, take control of you stereo and jam YMCA for 6 hours. He'll leave behind a ton of McDonalds wrappers and other trash. He might tip you at the end but he's not paying for gas. He'll say something like, "just send me a bill" and never pay that bill.
Harris will spend 10 minutes trying to get to know you and spend all the rest of the time on the phone getting shit done, so no music, podcasts... you get to listen to her on the phone. She's going to be too busy to drive, so you're the chauffeur again. She's going to ask to stop at every vegan grocery and spice shop so she can canvas voters. The car will smell much better and she will clean up after herself but it will still be a grueling trip.
I don't vote for presidents based on the assumption I'm going to spend any amount of personal time them. But, based on your scenario, I'm voting for the person who doesn't consistently screw over the people who decide to spend personal time with him.
@UnspecifiedPerson probably as Republican as they're the party's nominees. It says in the description, regardless of personal party affiliation. Now, if I'm not mistaken, presidential systems elect people, not parties, so this market's question is flawed from the beginning. Trump could've been both the Republican and Libertarian nominee. Maduro was the nominee of like 14 parties or something. This market was made to account for frontrunner changes and nominee changes. Essentially, the way I interpret this market is, if you're the Republican or Democratic nominee, regardless of whether you're the nominee of other parties as well, this market will resolve for the Republican or Democratic party. If you're solely the nominee of a third party, or independent, it'll resolve to Other
Smart money is moving the markets! @jim and @JonathanRay and @JonasVollmer yes you are doing it right way. @Joshua and the @jack and the @jacksonpolack maybe not so much here? I am always searching for the edge of it here, and everyday your bets are bringing me closer to it. I agree!
If you expect the debate to have a significant impact, but you have mean 0 on the direction of the move, you can buy some variance on the outcome of this very market, in the market below:
(Or if you think little will change between now and the election, you can buy a more sharply peaked distribution there!)
