Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Democratic Party
Republican Party

Resolves to the political party of the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election, as decided by the below market, unless the winner runs as an independent (ie, does not get nominated by either the Democratic or Republican parties).

In that case, regardless of the candidate's party affiliation, the market will resolve Other.

Manifold Politics reserves the right to add additional answers to this market, in case that appears helpful, but all such answers can be bet on currently by voting Yes on Other.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

Consider that the broader sentiment in the D.C. complex is that the courts are an obstruction to the legislative and executive. The expansions or neutering of the courts would therefore be critical.

The big problem for D.C. is that the populist sentiment in the public is against shrinking the influence, neutering, or otherwise watering down the courts. How do you solve that from a D.C. perspective? How do you get buy-in?

If this is a core priority of D.C. (this being a stand-in for the 'managerial class' as it were), the only way you do that is with an upset-election.

Someone unpopular has to be elected, and lose the popular vote, but win the electoral college.

You could do it with either trump or biden. Trump and the RNC already have their prefered picks for the supreme court, so handing them the white house is a no go for D.C.

A lot of press on both sides appears to be anti-biden, I'm not for either because I think elections are a fools errand, but I digress. The rightwing outlets are obviously pro-trump or at least pro-RNC, while the leftwing outlets incompetently defend the DNC and biden. Whats the net outcome?

An unpopular president, who doesn't win the popular vote, or only wins it ostensibly, undermines support for the court system and the electoral college.

I think, going on this basis, a lot of the bureaucratic class (all the professionals, high and low in all the sundry branches, agencies, NGOs, etc) are aiming for 1. a biden win, 2. with a loss of the popular vote, 3. elected through the electoral college, 4. with the contentious issue putting the supreme court and court system in disarray against itself.

Thats sort of the current situation even now, but if you're not gonna let a crisis go to waste, and why would D.C. do anything but-- then why not take the opportunity to repeat and double down on the same strategy thats already working?

That unpopularity gets buy-in from the populists, the middle and the moderates disaffected by a presidential outcome that they don't approve of to begin with.

I personally see it 70% - 30% for trump winning.

sold Ṁ28 Democratic Party NO

@DavideBerweger Trump is undervalued but that does not mean that Biden could go higher in the short term.

@DavideBerweger Why would you post these as comments instead of just taking advantage of them?

@Snarflak I already voted my entire cash on it, I cant take advantage of it anymore

If anything people closing the gap yields me quick profits

bought Ṁ10 Republican Party YES

@Snarflak in general also it's good to create the vibe of Manifold as a place where ppl are trying to be accurate about probabilities and everyone has more information available rather than less, but obviously no one in particular has to disclose information only they have

opened a Ṁ7 Republican Party YES at 46% order

This is strange, I somehow filled a 46% limit order at 50%:

@FH7979e Yeah, it is a glitch that I think occurs whenever you place a limit order on a multiple choice question. It fills some tiny fractional amount of the limit order immediately and incorrectly displays the percentage the limit order was placed at in the trading history.

Republican is way undervalued right now. Lower odds of the party winning than Trump winning, while Biden tanks in the polls?

@Athena What do you mean? Trump is at 45-47% depending on the market

@Tumbles The market was at 47% while Trump was at also at 47% in Jack's market. I bought up some Republican to correct it to 48, and I see that we are back to 49 now. I incorrectly thought that the 47% in Jack's market was closer to 48% than this one, so they were equal rather than this one being lesser.

Comment hidden
Comment hidden