Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
💎
Premium
1.3k
1.3M
2025
44%
Democratic Party
56%
Republican Party
0%
Other

Resolves to the political party of the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election, as decided by the below market, unless the winner runs as an independent (ie, does not get nominated by either the Democratic or Republican parties).

In that case, regardless of the candidate's party affiliation, the market will resolve Other.

Manifold Politics reserves the right to add additional answers to this market, in case that appears helpful, but all such answers can be bet on currently by voting Yes on Other.

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Biden needs to be ahead by 2% rather than behind by 2% in national polls to have a 50/50 chance of winning the electoral college. That's assuming he runs a historically average quality campaign, which he won't because he's senile. Trump likely pulls further ahead every time Biden opens his mouth to make another gaffe. Nate silver's mathematical model based on polls has biden at 27.5% but he suspects the reality is even worse than that because of qualitative factors that aren't in the model (i.e., being senile)

Comparing with the presidential candidates market, looks like there's a 2% chance that Donald Trump switches his party affiliation to Democrat before winning the election!

filled a Ṁ1,000 Democratic Party YES at 16% order

All the yes limit orders are being treated as market instead

Even after refreshing the page

opened a Ṁ25,000 Republican Party NO at 85% order

Something is super broken with the order matching system because the price displayed is outside the bounds of my limit orders and I have a balance

bought Ṁ350 Republican Party NO

We're seeing the limits of Manifold. People with more money than sense are using every bump in the road to say Trump will win and it won't even be close and this is a mandate for very conservative policies, when even polling averages only have Trump ahead like 2 points.

The national polls aren't as important as the swing states, though. It's hard to see a great path for Biden when, for example, Pennsylvania looks like this:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-biden

Meanwhile, the same polls have Bob Casey running 15 points ahead of Biden, so either there's an absurd amount of ticket splitting for the polarized environment, the Casey voters come home and realize they didn't like Trump, or Casey is being overreported by 10 or more points in a way that does not also benefit Biden.

opened a Ṁ25,000 Republican Party NO at 61% order

Three times in a row a limit order in the UI was executed as a market order instead

edit: I meant to respond to a different comment

for like a year now on some linked MCs it executes a few cents of the order at the market price but the rest is still at the limit price, and then the displayed price in 'trades' is the market price i think.

oh the whole order was executed as a market order? ouch

How much mana did you lose? I can refund you, sorry about that

Like 17k

Sent

sold Ṁ13 Other YES

...crap, I just clicked the "quick limit order" button without knowing what it did and accidentally bought a thousand mana worth of YES at 2%.

(I thought that was the button to place a limit order at a percentage of my choice, and was going to put a limit order for YES at 0.1%.)

Vote 3rd party no matter who!

But only if you're conservative! Those primary parties are for the libs amirite?

I am making a venn diagram about the significance of the passage of time being unburdened by what has been unburdened by what will be. In the middle is the 3rd party. If you take time to make the position there, maybe you can see the enlightenment. Your financial decisions sometimes need some of the spirituality, so don't be so afraid to take the step away and let markets guide the financial complexity of it all.

@Tumbles So naively you have chosen the wrong horse in the races. But you can still be on the right side of the history if you make the right decisions. I have done it too! It is the list you are not wanting to be on in the new Amerika.

Assuming it's mostly a repeat of 2020 with the Margin going from Biden +4.5 to Biden +2.0, I have Trump 67%, Biden 33% to win election

The median outcome is Trump 289 Biden 259, average is Trump 286.5 Biden 261.5.

Biden's floor is much higher (~200 EVs) compared to Trump's (~180 EVs)

*279, 276.5

How's Donald Trump going to win if he's in jail or dealing with the felonies?

And if Trump isn't the republican nominee I doubt there will be anyone else ready to replace him as the republican candidate this year.

My guess is that something is going to make Trump inelligible for presidency, then the republican vote will be split between several candidates. Then since it's pretty clear that Joe Biden is the democratic candidate this year then he'll win. I imagine the votes will be like 45% democrat, 30% republican candidate 1, 18% republican candidate 2, 7% other. And then democrats win.

@FunnyGeeks Trump is unlikely to be sentenced to prison time for his current conviction, and even more unlikely to somehow be rendered ineligible to run for president.

@FunnyGeeks How likely do you think that is? You may answer with a bet.

He can just pardon himself theoretically too, if it became a judicial issue no doubt the Supreme Court would side with him

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