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Russia-Ukraine war

Territorial changes

Ṁ100
Will Russia make territorial gains in Ukraine in 2026?
80% chance
Ṁ1k
Will Ukraine lose more territory in 2026 than it did in 2025?
14% chance

City control

Ṁ1k
Will Russia control Konstantinovka by the end of November 2026?
55% chance
Ṁ100
When will Ukraine control Konstantinovka?
50%
At the end of August 2026
34%
At the end of November 2026
38%
At the end of February 2027
Resolved
NO
At the end of May 2026
Ṁ100
When will Ukraine capture Kupiansk?
8/25/26
Ṁ1.1k
Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026?
80% chance
Ṁ1k
Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?
4% chance
Ṁ1k
Will Russia control Dobropillya by the end of June 2027?
40% chance
Ṁ1k
Will Russia control Druzhkivka by the end of September 2027?
50% chance
Ṁ1k
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by the end of November 2027?
50% chance
Ṁ1k
Will Ukraine control Slavyansk at the end of October 2027?
59% chance
Ṁ1k
When will Russia capture Sloviansk?
8/9/27
Ṁ100
Will Russia control Slavyansk by the end of 2029?
52% chance
Ṁ1k
Will Ukraine control Mariupol on Jan 1st 2029?
24% chance
Ṁ100
Will Ukraine take back control of Mariupol while Putin is in power?
7% chance
Ṁ1k
What cities will change hands before the Ukraine-Russia war ends
17%
Melitopol
14%
Mariupol
10%
Kharkiv
8%
Luhansk
See 2 more answers

Regional control

Ṁ1k
Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?
40% chance
Ṁ100
Will Russia control 100% of donbass before 2027 ?
5% chance
Ṁ150
How many of the 50 largest cities in Donbass will Ukraine control at the end of 2026?
7.2
Ṁ1k
Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?
41% chance

Territorial claims

Peace

Wikipedia's verdict

Miscellaneous