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Russia-Ukraine war

Territorial changes

Ṁ100
Will Russia make territorial gains in Ukraine in 2026?
80% chance
Ṁ100
Ṁ1k
Will Ukraine lose more territory in 2026 than it did in 2025?
10% chance
Ṁ1k

City control

Ṁ1k
Will Russia control Konstantinovka by the end of November 2026?
YES
Ṁ1k
Ṁ100
When will Ukraine control Konstantinovka?
17%
At the end of August 2026
20%
At the end of November 2026
19%
At the end of February 2027
Resolved
NO
At the end of May 2026
Ṁ100
Ṁ100
When will Ukraine capture Kupiansk?
10/10/26
Ṁ100
Ṁ1.1k
Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026?
50% chance
Ṁ1.1k
Ṁ1k
Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?
4% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ1k
Will Russia control Dobropillya by the end of June 2027?
39% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ1k
Will Russia control Druzhkivka by the end of September 2027?
50% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ1k
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by the end of November 2027?
41% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ1k
Will Ukraine control Slavyansk at the end of October 2027?
59% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ1k
When will Russia capture Sloviansk?
8/9/27
Ṁ1k
Ṁ100
Will Russia control Slavyansk by the end of 2029?
52% chance
Ṁ100
Ṁ1k
Will Ukraine control Mariupol on Jan 1st 2029?
23% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ100
Will Ukraine take back control of Mariupol while Putin is in power?
7% chance
Ṁ100
Ṁ1k
What cities will change hands before the Ukraine-Russia war ends
17%
Melitopol
14%
Mariupol
13%
Kharkiv
8%
Luhansk
See 2 more answers
Ṁ1k

Regional control

Ṁ1k
Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?
39% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ100
Will Russia control 100% of donbass before 2027 ?
5% chance
Ṁ100
Ṁ150
How many of the 50 largest cities in Donbass will Ukraine control at the end of 2026?
7.2
Ṁ150
Ṁ1k
Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?
35% chance
Ṁ1k

Territorial claims

Peace

Wikipedia's verdict

Miscellaneous