Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if Ukraine’s net territorial loss within its 1991 borders is greater in 2026 than it was in 2025, according to a majority of the following sources:

• ISW

• Black Bird Group

• Divgen

• DeepState

• Creamy caprice

If a source fails to provide the necessary information within seven days of the market closing, it will be excluded and a majority of the remaining sources will be required for a YES resolution.

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Close date

This market will close at 23:59:00 UTC on 31 December 2026 and may resolve up to seven days later.

Clarifications

This market concerns de facto territorial changes within Ukraine’s 1991 borders. Territorial changes within the Kursk and Belgorod regions, for example, will not be counted in either year.

Territory gained or lost by diplomatic means (i.e. in a peace treaty) will be counted in this market, as well as territory gained or lost militarily.

For the purpose of this market, Ukraine’s net territorial loss can be understood as equal in magnitude and opposite in direction to Russia’s net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Each resolution source is to be compared only against itself. If a source fails to provide an estimate for 2026, its estimate for 2025 will be excluded as well.

The resolution criteria may be overridden only in exceptional circumstances in which:

• the resolution criteria are, for unforeseen reasons, no longer fit for purpose; and

• adhering to the resolution criteria would lead to a resolution that is against the spirit of the market and contrary to a consensus of media reports.

I will not trade in this market.

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