Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Russian forces establish full military control over Lyman, Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026.

Resolution sources

• Confirmation from: (at least 3 of these) Suriyakmaps, Kalibrated, Military Summary, DPA, AMK

• Official statements from Ukrainian/Russian military command

• Map shaded red on ISW map

• Major international news outlets covering the conflict

The market resolves NO if Ukraine maintains control of Lyman or if a peace agreement is reached that leaves the city under Ukrainian control.