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MANIFOLD
When will Ukraine control Konstantinovka?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ65
2027
63%
At the end of May 2026
50%
At the end of August 2026
34%
At the end of November 2026
24%
At the end of February 2027

Resolution criteria

Each option will resolve YES if, at the stated time, Ukraine has de facto control of the entirety of central Konstantinovka, Donetsk Oblast. For the purpose of this market, this refers to the area shaded yellow in the image below:

Each option will resolve NO if, at the stated time, any part of this area is contested or controlled by Russia.

For the duration of the war, any YES or NO resolution must be supported by a majority of the following mappers:

Clarifications

This market will use UTC+3 time.

Konstantinovka is also known as Kostiantynivka or Kostyantynivka.

I may trade in this market. If I believe the resolution of this market is likely to be contentious, I will either sell my shares or entrust a Manifold mod with resolving the market.

Market context
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