When will Ukraine control Konstantinovka?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ652027
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
63%
At the end of May 2026
50%
At the end of August 2026
34%
At the end of November 2026
24%
At the end of February 2027
Resolution criteria
Each option will resolve YES if, at the stated time, Ukraine has de facto control of the entirety of central Konstantinovka, Donetsk Oblast. For the purpose of this market, this refers to the area shaded yellow in the image below:

Each option will resolve NO if, at the stated time, any part of this area is contested or controlled by Russia.
For the duration of the war, any YES or NO resolution must be supported by a majority of the following mappers:
Clarifications
This market will use UTC+3 time.
Konstantinovka is also known as Kostiantynivka or Kostyantynivka.
I may trade in this market. If I believe the resolution of this market is likely to be contentious, I will either sell my shares or entrust a Manifold mod with resolving the market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Russia control Konstantinovka by the end of November 2026?
54% chance
When, if ever, will Russia control Konstantinovka?
7/31/26
When will Russia capture Kostyantynivka?
When will Ukraine capture Kupiansk?
8/24/26
Will Ukraine regain control of the whole of Kherson region by 2028?
28% chance
Will Ukraine control Mariupol on Jan 1st 2029?
13% chance
Will Ukraine take back control of Mariupol while Putin is in power?
4% chance