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Hard Forkasts
Life in 2030
trending
Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?
62%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Robotics
#
Technology
#
Humanoid robotics
24
Ṁ490
trending
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
25%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
World
#
China
#
Taiwan
512
Ṁ15K
trending
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
34%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Showcase
#
Robotics
#
AI
433
Ṁ13K
trending
Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?
44%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Tesla
#
Automotive
#
Self-Driving Vehicles
302
Ṁ3.1K
trending
Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?
26%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
Politics
#
World
194
Ṁ4.7K
trending
Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?
59%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Space
#
Artemis 3 / Human Moon Landing
#
Artemis program
197
Ṁ2.2K
trending
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
68%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Mathematics
#
AI
212
Ṁ2.4K
trending
Will Starship reach Mars by 2030?
36%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Space
#
Mars
156
Ṁ2.2K
trending
Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?
79%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Politics
#
World
#
Geopolitics
123
Ṁ2.1K
trending
By 2030, how many US States will have ever had a nonmale governor?
38
Lower
About right
Higher
#
United States
#
US Politics
#
Elections
5
Ṁ180
trending
Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?
40%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
SF Bay Rationalists
#
San Francisco
#
Urbanism
109
Ṁ2K
trending
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?
37%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Space
#
Metaculus
#
Mars
114
Ṁ2K
trending
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?
96%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Technology
#
AI
#
Futurism
104
Ṁ2K
trending
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
37%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Showcase
#
Biology
#
Technology
110
Ṁ12K
trending
Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2030?
51%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Unsubsidized
#
Unranked
97
Ṁ1.5K
trending
[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?
73%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Subsidy Spotlight
#
Dentistry
#
Aella
101
Ṁ6.2K
trending
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?
58%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Technology
#
AI
#
Self-Driving Vehicles
88
Ṁ2.3K
trending
Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?
55%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Technology
#
Elon musk
#
Braincomputer interface
98
Ṁ1.1K
trending
By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?
55%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Space
#
Technology
95
Ṁ1.5K
trending
Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?
40%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Nuclear Risk
#
Energy
#
AI
79
Ṁ1.4K
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