Forrest avatar
Forrest
closes Jan 1, 2031
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?
67%
chance

This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll and https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-8d2fc453ac75, but for 2030 instead of 2023/2025, and a correspondingly looser definition of 'sudden'.

For the sake of consistency, I'll ask @dreev for a judgement if the resolution seems unclear to me.

For convenience, what follows is the description of the orignal market this is based on:

> I'm picking "trillion+ dollar impact" as a proxy for "obviously life-changing for normal people". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count:

> 1. Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans

> 2. Superhuman art, i.e., people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art

> 3. AI generating wholly new science/tech

> 4. A technological singularity, obviously

> 5. Level 5 self-driving cars or level 4 available mostly everywhere

Nov 29, 5:10pm: Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030? → Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

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