It's already possible to sustain a fusion reaction for a long time (see e.g. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusor), just not one that is sufficiently powerful or generates a net energy gain. I think you should add some conditions to market description to cover this, probably the net energy gain thing

While significant progress has been made in recent years in developing fusion technology, it is unlikely that we will sustain a nuclear fusion reaction continuously for more than 24 hours before the end of 2030. This is due to several reasons, including:

1. Technical Challenges: One of the most significant technical challenges in achieving sustainable nuclear fusion is creating the conditions necessary for the fusion reaction to occur. This requires extremely high temperatures and pressures, which must be maintained for prolonged periods. Additionally, the materials used to contain the plasma must be able to withstand the high temperatures and radiation produced by the reaction. These technical challenges have yet to be overcome to the extent necessary to achieve sustainable nuclear fusion.

2. Research and Development: While there have been significant advancements in fusion research, it is still a relatively new field that requires further research and development. The ITER project, which is a major international effort to build the world's largest experimental fusion reactor, is not expected to be completed until 2025. Even after completion, it will take several years to test and optimize the reactor to achieve sustainable fusion.

3. Funding: Nuclear fusion research is expensive, and funding for research and development is not always consistent. While there are many governments and private companies investing in fusion technology, the amount of funding available may not be sufficient to support sustained progress.

4. Regulatory Hurdles: Even if sustainable nuclear fusion were achieved, it would still need to be approved by regulatory agencies before it could be used to generate electricity on a large scale. The regulatory approval process can be lengthy and complex, and it is uncertain how long it would take to gain approval for a new technology like nuclear fusion.

In conclusion, while the potential benefits of nuclear fusion are vast, it is unlikely that we will achieve sustainable nuclear fusion reactions that can produce more energy than it takes to initiate the reaction for more than 24 hours before the end of 2030. This is due to the significant technical challenges, ongoing research and development, funding constraints, and regulatory hurdles that must be overcome before nuclear fusion can become a viable source of energy. However, continued investment and research in fusion technology may lead to breakthroughs that could make sustainable nuclear fusion a reality in the future.

@levifinkelstein This comment was definitely written by an LLM.

"In CoNcLuSiOn"

@RobinGreen What do you mean? This is just how they teach you to write in high school. 😜

Record timeline:
Less than a second, JET 1997
5 seconds, JET 2022
17 minutes, EAST 2022

ITER isn't scheduled to reach fusion until 2035, but I think Zap Energy is a contender for this market. Also Helion, NIF, First Light, and General Fusion are not continuous fusion reactors, and Helion in particular seems to be one of the most promising projects, so I'm not sure how useful this market criteria is.

@ahalekelly Agreed, If I were re writing this market, I would write it to encapsulate positive energy generation and continuous operation of a nuclear reactor for 24 hours. Which would capture to potential success of Helios' new model if it becomes operational this year. For now, I'll leave the criteria as stated and Helios could not resolve this market yes without changing their fundamental design.

Nuclear fusion is always 30 years away. So based on past evidence, no.