Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030? | Manifold

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

114

2.3kṀ20k

2030

83%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market's resolution piggybacks on Jeff Atwood and John Carmack's bet documented on the Coding Horror blog: https://blog.codinghorror.com/the-2030-self-driving-car-bet/

However they resolve their bet is how this market resolves.

Self-Driving Vehicles

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Related questions

Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?

Will more than 50% of cars sold in 2030 in the US have self driving capabilities (SAE level 3)?

Will a Level 4 autonomous vehicle service be operating publicly in at least five major cities globally by EOY 2025?

Full self driving cars will be legal with no need for human interaction in any country by the end of 2025?

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

Will I be able to complete a 10+ hour trip via self-driving car by end of 2025?

Will Tesla release a full level 4 autonomy (no human behind the wheel) car / driver by the end of 2025?

Will a fully autonomous car be able to drive in Mumbai in 2040?

Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to San Francisco (or back) by the end of 2025?

Will a major city in Europe have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?

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