Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?

Life in 2030•Self Driving Cars•Technology•AI•Self-Driving Vehicles

506

Ṁ11K

Ṁ2.3K

2030

58%

chance

ALL

This market's resolution piggybacks on Jeff Atwood and John Carmack's bet documented on the Coding Horror blog: https://blog.codinghorror.com/the-2030-self-driving-car-bet/

However they resolve their bet is how this market resolves.

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?

20% chance

Will a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?

79% chance

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)? [Ṁ1500 subsidy]

30% chance

Full self driving cars will be legal with no need for human interaction in any country by the end of 2025?

37% chance

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

32% chance

Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?

50% chance

Will tesla autopilot reach level 5 by the end of this decade?

47% chance

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

27% chance

Will there be an autonomous driving car that can drive reliably in most of India, by 2040?

57% chance

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

Sort by:

Sorry, But I think there's a serious problem with the description of this market. A "Level 5" car is generally defined to not have geographic boundaries that it's able to operate in. (It might have legal boundaries, like only being authorized to operate in one country or one state). So saying "at least one city" doesn't make sense.

Look at the bottom right hand box. "Anywhere".

@DavidFWatson What I'm saying is that either a car is able to drive autonomously throughout the entire United States, (or some other country or State), or it doesn't qualify as Level 5.

I took a bunch of Waymo rides all over San Francisco this weekend -- no one in the driver's seat at all -- and am pretty blown away by (a) how safe and smooth it is and (b) how much human-like understanding it has about how to navigate around double-parked cars, wait for pedestrians, etc etc.

@dreev Mob sets Waymo car ablaze in San Francisco

This happened yesterday.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Basically no financial incentive to roll out level 5 capability vs level 4. Required hardware, testing, and validation costs make that step unlikely in this timeframe. Market can be addressed with level 4.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

I'm not sure we're as close on, specifically, level 5 autonomy as we seem. The 2023 state of the art with Waymo and Cruise in places like Phoenix and San Francisco is level 4. I think it's another big leap to having no restrictions on where the car can go and no restrictions on conditions under which the car can drive.

Level 5 autonomy might be an AI-complete problem, so to speak, like where AGI is a prereq. Maybe not literally but there needs to be almost nothing a human driver can deal with that the AI can't. And there's a quite long tail of things in that category to painstakingly work through. I wouldn't be surprised if it's commonplace to see cars with no one in the driver's seat all over the world and yet none of it counts as level 5.

With current Waymo and Cruise cars there are still situations like road closures or traffic cops making hand signals where the car can't figure out what to do and has to ask for human help.

@dreev when you phrase the question as "available in a major city" I assume it still means there can be some restrictions outside of the city, right? The car must be level 5 within a major city... Or did I misunderstand the phrasing of the question?

@mjmandl Level 5 within the city, yeah. I see the ambiguity though. Does an inability to leave a restricted area mean it's not truly level 5? I'm comfortable saying that for the spirit of this question, that restriction doesn't count, as long as it can operate in the entire city, including non-public roads, reconfigured roads it hasn't seen before, etc.