Isaac King
@IsaacKingI have email notifications turned off, so if I'm taking a break from Manifold and you need something from me, please ping me via discord or one of the other contact methods on my website.
In the event of my death or incapacitation, my partner has instructions to resolve my markets to the best of her ability once they close.
If I and everyone else with login access to my account has been inactive and unreachable for at least 2 months since the close date of one of my markets, I would appreciate it if the Manifold admins would resolve my markets for me in accordance with their best guess at how I would wish for it to be resolved. Or if they'd prefer, they can delegate that responsibility to a trusted trader or other consensus mechanism.
If you're concerned about whether this will actually occur, bet on it here: https://manifold.markets/a/if-isaac-king-dies-or-is-incapacita
In the event of one of my market titles+descriptions containing resolution criteria that clearly and unambiguously conflict with the spirit of the market, I will follow the criteria in the title+description. In the event of ambiguous or contradictory criteria, I will follow the spirit of the market as I believe I have conveyed it to traders in that market.
I offer bounties to people for helping me head off contested resolutions before they occur. More info here: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-i-pay-out-at-least-10-bounties
Trading profits
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Balance
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Portfolio
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1D
1W
1M
ALL
Creator rank
#0
Total markets
0
Unique traders
20,304+9%
Posts
What are the best scandal market resolution criteria?
Using Scott Alexander as my guinea pig, I have created quite a few different types of scandel markets. They all have their own flaws.
The ones about crimes may be lower than you'd expect, since the legal system moves so slowly and the conviction might not go through before the end date. And there are lots of things Scott could do that will make his friends angry at him, but wouldn't be a felony.
The ones about accusations are easy for a bad actor to manipulate.
The ones about social outrage are highly subjective and will probably result in arguments over resolution, and they can be self-fulfilling if people make committments to ostracise anyone whose market goes above a certain percentage.
The one that's a poll may end up being more about the makeup of Manifold's user base than it is about anything Scott was or was not found to have done, and is also highly subjective.
I'm making this post as a central place to discuss the upsides and downsides of different market types, and hopfully arrive at a robust structure that we can use for markets on the reliability of public figures across the board.
[markets]20
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Culture War
Markets about things where people tend to argue heatedly and think that anyone who disagrees with them is a horrible/stupid person.
This group is not for any market on a cultute-war-adjacent political topic, like "will Trump be elected president?" or "will such and such abortion legislation pass?". It's for markets where the question posed by the market is itself a question that people get angry over, may think it's inappropriate to even ask about, or want to strongly defend.
If the market has a bunch of angry comments on it, it may be a culture war market.0
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A warning to all Manifolders: A major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction will happen by new years day, 2023
Evidence in favor:
I said so.
I'm one of the most trusted market creators on Manifold.
I'm 24th on the all time profit leaderboard.
A substantial fraction of that profit was from traunches.
Clearly, I am an expert on traunche corrections.
I even have a badge that says you can trust me.
[image]3
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