Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?
214
40k
2029
71%
chance

Resolves YES if a human sets foot on the moon after 2000 but before 2030.

I keep an ordered list of human moon landing markets here:
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again

See also:

/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun

/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882

Artemis 2 timeline: /Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026

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68% ???

@RemNi Seems crazy to me we'd not go back until the 2030s

@RemNi Yeah idk the markets have been getting very bearish on moon landings recently. Massive flip from when I had to downvote all the "moon landing in 2025/2026" markets.

I'm still pretty invested in moon landing 2028 tbh, maybe 2029?

@Mqrius https://www.metaculus.com/questions/649/when-will-the-next-human-being-walk-on-the-moon/

Metaculus currently says May 2029. I haven't been keeping up with the Artemis missions, I guess people are assuming that no news is bad news?

@RemNi Artemis rumblings have been that NASA is considering turning Artemis 3 into a LEO mission where they practice docking and Starship life support. I think that might delay things but not by all that much compared to what markets were already expecting.

It'll definitely be later than 2025/2026 but we already knew that.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/04/nasa-may-alter-artemis-iii-to-have-starship-and-orion-dock-in-low-earth-orbit/

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