Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?
2030
62%
chance

Must be largely undisputed. The most recent one as of market creation was South Sudan in 2011.

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GiorgiGiorgi avatar
Giorgi Giorgi
MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahambought Ṁ5 of NO

Besides states that resulted from the cia or catastrophic collapses of existing governments, I don't think any real countries have been created since 1965 or so.

vmjusto avatar
VMJ

For the purposes of this, is Kosovo considered as already recognized or still lacking? If so, what is the threshold for "internationally recognized"? Does it have to be recognized by every single UN member or just the entire Security Council, for example?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

@vmjusto Doesn't count if it's still significantly disputed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Kosovo

AndrewG avatar
Andrew Gsold Ṁ11 of YES

@IsaacKing Really, Kosovo wouldn't count for this market?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

As of 4 September 2020, 101 out of 193 (52.3%) United Nations member states, 22 out of 27 (81.5%) European Union member states, 26 out of 30 (86.7%) NATO member states, and 33 out of 57 (57.9%) Organisation of Islamic Cooperation member states have recognised Kosovo.

Certainly doesn't seem to be a settled matter.