Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030? | Manifold Markets

Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?

2030

39

62%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Must be largely undisputed. The most recent one as of market creation was South Sudan in 2011.

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Mark Ingrahambought Ṁ5 of NO

Besides states that resulted from the cia or catastrophic collapses of existing governments, I don't think any real countries have been created since 1965 or so.

Collected Over Spread

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210706-bougainville-sets-2027-deadline-for-independence-from-papua-new-guinea

For the purposes of this, is Kosovo considered as already recognized or still lacking? If so, what is the threshold for "internationally recognized"? Does it have to be recognized by every single UN member or just the entire Security Council, for example?

@vmjusto Doesn't count if it's still significantly disputed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Kosovo

Andrew Gsold Ṁ11 of YES

@IsaacKing Really, Kosovo wouldn't count for this market?

As of 4 September 2020, 101 out of 193 (52.3%) United Nations member states, 22 out of 27 (81.5%) European Union member states, 26 out of 30 (86.7%) NATO member states, and 33 out of 57 (57.9%) Organisation of Islamic Cooperation member states have recognised Kosovo.

Certainly doesn't seem to be a settled matter.

connorcash bought Ṁ50 YES from 60% to 62%

Josh Wilkes bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 60%

moritz basel bought Ṁ10 NO from 60% to 59%

JAAM bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 60%

archvenison bought Ṁ10 YES at 59%

Mark Ingraham bought Ṁ5 NO at 59%

firstuserhere sold Ṁ1 YES at 59%

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Alexander Sumer sold Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 56%

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cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 68%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 46%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 50%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 63%

Collected Over Spread bought Ṁ30 YES from 53% to 55%

Andrew G sold Ṁ11 YES from 54% to 53%

Isaac bought Ṁ15 NO from 55% to 54%

Isaac sold Ṁ8 NO from 54% to 55%

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Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ21 YES at 48% (cancelled)

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Alex Paton bought Ṁ10 NO from 46% to 45%

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Isaac bought Ṁ10 NO from 46% to 44%

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S G bought Ṁ10 NO from 46% to 43%

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AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 NO at 42% (cancelled)

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AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 NO at 39% (cancelled)

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Carson Gale created limit order for Ṁ15 YES at 30% (cancelled)

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ3 YES at 31% (cancelled)

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