Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Africa before 2030?
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2030
50%
chance

Including transcontinental countries.

"Newly": Doesn't count any country that has already legalized it now or has set a future date for when it will be legal (like Estonia has). But any country that formalizes legalization at a future date, even if that date is after 2029, does count so long as the decision was locked in before 2030.

Must qualify in such a way that the country would change to dark blue on this Wikipedia map, though changes to that map are not required for this question to resolve YES.


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Why is the % so high here? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Africa

There's no on going effort in Africa to legalize same-sex unions. Quite the contrary (Uganda, Ghana, Namibia...).

@adssx Well, there are a lot of countries in Africa, and it only takes one court ruling or something like that.

@lisamarsh how many of those countries have courts with that level of power?

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