Resolves YES if the WHO declares a pandemic not related to Covid-19 on or by December 31, 2030. Resolves NO otherwise.
If the WHO declares a pandemic due to some variant of Covid-19, this will not count.
There are 6.75 years left for this to happen. The 6.75th root of 0.74 (the chance of no pandemic, according to this market at time of writing) is ~0.956, meaning this market currently estimates the base rate of a new pandemic at 4.4%. This seems high to me, since afaict there have only been 2 new pandemics in the last 100 years (HIV and covid). Even taking into account a theoretical modest increase in risk due to agricultural practices in China, I think this could stand to go down a few points.
@AngolaMaldives Just realised the description says 'by 2030' includes 2030, making the implied base rate 3.9%. Underlying reasoning is the same, though it does mean I bet more agressively than intended.
@AngolaMaldives re base rates, I think WHO also declared 2009 swine flu a pandemic. And they here describe 1957 & 1968 influenza as pandemics (though idk if they were making declarations in those days). I think the appropriate base rate is more like 4-5%.
