Resolves YES if the WHO declares a pandemic not related to Covid-19 on or by December 31, 2030. Resolves NO otherwise.
If the WHO declares a pandemic due to some variant of Covid-19, this will not count.
1,000
1.00The WHO doesn't declare pandemics, they declare Public Health Emergencies of International concern (I'd have lost money on the bet).
@JoeC how are you planning on resolving this?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern
There are 6.75 years left for this to happen. The 6.75th root of 0.74 (the chance of no pandemic, according to this market at time of writing) is ~0.956, meaning this market currently estimates the base rate of a new pandemic at 4.4%. This seems high to me, since afaict there have only been 2 new pandemics in the last 100 years (HIV and covid). Even taking into account a theoretical modest increase in risk due to agricultural practices in China, I think this could stand to go down a few points.
@AngolaMaldives Just realised the description says 'by 2030' includes 2030, making the implied base rate 3.9%. Underlying reasoning is the same, though it does mean I bet more agressively than intended.
@AngolaMaldives re base rates, I think WHO also declared 2009 swine flu a pandemic. And they here describe 1957 & 1968 influenza as pandemics (though idk if they were making declarations in those days). I think the appropriate base rate is more like 4-5%.