Starship Launch

After an April test flight that failed to reach orbit, SpaceX plans to attempt another launch of their Starship rocket.

Ṁ3.2k

Starship next launch

100%99.6%

November

0.0%

August

0.1%

September

0.1%

October

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Ṁ3.2k

SpaceX frustrated by Starship licensing delays

A SpaceX executive used a Senate hearing to express frustration with the slow pace of launch licensing reviews that is holding up Starship launches.

Ṁ2.1k

Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in November 2023?

YES

Ṁ2.1k

Ṁ1.3k

Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of November?

YES

Ṁ1.3k

Ṁ1.5k

Will the next full stack launch of Starship (after 4/20) occur before the end of 2023?

YES

Ṁ1.5k

Ṁ13k

Will Starship reach space in 2023?

YES

Ṁ13k

Ṁ2.3k

40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?

NO

Ṁ2.3k

Ṁ350

If Starship manages a "near orbital" flight but not technically an orbital flight will Scott Alexander resolve "Yes"

N/A

Ṁ350

Ṁ2.3k

SpaceX’s Starship will reach orbit [in 2023]

NO

Ṁ2.3k

Ṁ4k

How long will the next Starship flight last?

100%19%

4 - 15 minutes

0.3%

< 1 second

0.7%

1-4 seconds

1.2%

4-15 seconds

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Ṁ4k

Ṁ730

Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of 2023.

NO

Ṁ730

Ṁ290

On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) where the second stage lights, will it reach intended apogee?

NO

Ṁ290

Ṁ470

Will Starship complete a successful orbital test flight before Vulcan can complete it’s first Mission?

50%

Ṁ470

Ṁ1.1k

Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in December 2023?

NO

Ṁ1.1k

Ṁ2.5k

On the next Starship launch, how many first stage engines will stay operating?

100%89%

33

3%

32

2%

31

1.3%

30

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Ṁ2.5k

Ṁ910

Will SpaceX's Starship Second Orbital Test Launch have a successful stage separation?

YES

Ṁ910

Ṁ450

Will Starship reach space? (#2)

YES

Ṁ450

Ṁ270

Will Starship reach orbit? (#2)

NO

Ṁ270

Ṁ390

Will Starship land? (2023)

NO

Ṁ390

Ṁ945

Will Starship’s hot-staging work on the first try?

YES

Ṁ945

Ṁ830

Will Starship reach space before Vulcan?

YES

Ṁ830