Will Starship complete a successful orbital test flight before Vulcan can complete it’s first Mission?

closes Jan 1

54%

chance

ALL

This market is inspired by a YouTuber called The Angry Astronaut who made a bet that Peregrine will land on the moon before Starship has a "successful" orbital test flight. If he loses the bet, he has promised to get a tattoo saying "SpaceX Fanboy" on his ass. This market will follow the results of Angry's bet so see his channel for the exact details. One example can be found here: https://youtu.be/1mZm5ZOzcNI 1:50

Newer example from April 13 2023: https://youtu.be/g6tQHzyGMrk 2:47

The general idea though is that if starship successfully re enters from orbit and attempts a soft landing over the ocean before Peregrine lands on the moon, a component of Vulcan's first launch, this market will resolve to Yes and Angry will get that tattoo.

If neither happen by 1/1/24 ET this market will resolve at 50%.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Mqriuspredicts YES

fwiw they don't intend to do a soft landing, so I presume that's not necessary for this market to resolve Yes?

2 replies

Vortexpredicts NO

@Mqrius If there isn’t going to be any soft landing attempt then it won’t meet the criteria for a successful OFT.

Mqriussold Ṁ218 of YES

That makes no sense imo, they're intentionally not planning it, so they're not failing at it.

Mqriusbought Ṁ85 of YES

Mqriusbought Ṁ10 of YES

Oof, this is another market that hinges on the definitional question of if Starship's first flight counts or not. They probably won't actually go for full orbit, but it will still be called an orbital flight test. OFT for Starship currently seems to be March, with Vulcan NET May — and this is also assuming that everything goes well with Vulcan and Peregrine. I'll buy some Yes, but I'm not sure I trust Angry Astronaut very much in this.

3 replies

Vortexpredicts NO

@Mqrius If it’s the “land in Hawaii” plan I’ll count that as an orbital flight for this market just because that’s what everyone is calling it, I think he will use the same definition as he’s called it an orbital launch numerous times in his own videos.