On this question (https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/40-will-spacexs-starship-reach-orbi) a key uncertainty is if Scott will resolve Yes or No given a the successs of the current flight trajectory which skims orbit but won't remain there and hence isn't "technically" an orbital flight

In the ambiguous case (where spacex succeeds the current trajectory but doesn't succeed an umabigously orbital one) whill scott resolve yes?

if they do acheive orbit this will resolve "n/a" even if scott says how he would have resolved

40. Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2023?

34% chance. This is question #40 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.