How long will the next Starship flight last?

4kṀ7324

resolved Nov 18

100%19%

4 - 15 minutes

0.3%

< 1 second

0.7%

1-4 seconds

1.2%

4-15 seconds

16 seconds - 1 minute

13%

1 - 4 minutes

14%

15 minutes - 1 hour

48%

1 - 4 hours

0.2%

>4 hours / Does not land

Resolves to the amount of time between the liftoff of the Starship and the Starship either landing or exploding. This refers to the Starship itself, not the booster. If a flight is scheduled but is scrubbed before liftoff, or if it reaches ignition but does not lift off the pad, then that test does not count for the purposes of this market.

Market to be extended until a flight happens or SpaceX announces the Starship will never be launched.

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Seems that it blew up at around 8:04, any disagreements?

@BoltonBailey Not seeing any reporting to disconfirm this, so I'm resolving. If something changes lmk and I'll try to reresolve.

Can compare with the flight test timeline at https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-2

If this thing is built like the cybertruck, there should be negative time options in case it blows up on the way to the launchpad.

Cool story bro

I wanna buy >4 hours because it would be very exciting for things to go wrong in a way that generates "rogue starship" headlines.

More potentially useful information: Reviewing the video of the first launch, it was right on the edge of 4 minutes between launch and explosion.

@BoltonBailey FTS took about 40 seconds to cause explosion which was way too long and the system has been beefed up to cause more immediate explosion. So 3 minutes 10 seconds to 3 minutes 20 seconds might be better as a reference data point.

Stage separation didn't happen last time because ship couldn't reach landing area. I wonder if they will do that contingency differently this time, e.g. do the separation then either abort or command a flip to slow it down so debris doesn't go outside reserved danger areas then abort. Latter could possibly take it beyond 4 minutes, but with hot staging at 2 min 41 sec that seems doubtful?

Anyway hot staging probably riskier than IFT1 and in the 1-4 minute time.

Planned timeline for the previous launch courtesy of wikipedia:

00:00:00 Liftoff

00:00:55 Max q

00:02:49 Main engine cutoff

00:02:52 Stage separation

00:02:57 Starship ignition

00:03:11 Booster boostback burn startup

00:04:06 Booster boostback burn shutdown

00:07:32 Booster is transonic

00:07:40 Booster landing burn startup

00:08:03 Booster splashdown

00:09:20 Starship engine cutoff (SECO)

01:17:21 Starship atmospheric re-entry interface

01:28:43 Starship is transonic

01:30:00 Starship Pacific impact

I guess in the 15m–1h window, you could destruction due to early re-entry? I would imagine they'd probably blow it up right after SECO if it's not on a nominal trajectory though.