Will Starship reach space before Vulcan? | Manifold

Will Starship reach space before Vulcan?

35

closes Dec 31

82%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Reaching an altitude of 100km counts as reaching space. The rockets don't need to get into orbit.

The intention is for this market to be about the timing of the first flight of Vulcan vs the first OFT of a full stack Starship. Both are aiming to launch in March 2023.

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in October 2023?

Chris Billington

28% chance

Will Starship reach space in 2023?

61% chance

Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in September 2023?

Chris Billington

2% chance

Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of September 2023?

2% chance

Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of November?

64% chance

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

41% chance

STARSHIP launch 2 ending in FLIGHT TERMINATION SYSTEM

49% chance

How long will the next Starship flight last?

40. Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2023?

34% chance

Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of October 2023?

30% chance

Will another Starship launch attempt be made in Q3 2023?

1% chance

Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in November 2023?

Chris Billington

35% chance

Will the next Starship Orbital flight attempt occur before September 23rd?

Chris Billington

0% chance

Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of October 2023?

32% chance

Will the next full stack launch of Starship (after 4/20) occur before the end of 2023?

73% chance

Starship next launch

Will NASA end the current New Horizons Mission?

Sorin Tanase Nicola

49% chance

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

14% chance

Will Starship complete a successful orbital test flight before Vulcan can complete it’s first Mission?

54% chance

SpaceX’s Starship will reach orbit [in 2023]

34% chance

Sort by:

Mqriuspredicts YES

How would this resolve if

Josh Wilkesbought Ṁ325 of YES

https://spacenews.com/first-vulcan-launch-further-delayed-for-centaur-modifications/

First Vulcan launch further delayed for Centaur modifications

The inaugural launch of United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan Centaur rocket faces new delays to make “minor reinforcements” to part of the Centaur upper stage.

Looks like they didn't reach 100km altitude yet, if I saw it correctly. Will, review, but probably we'll have to wait for the next test, or Vulcan!

1 reply

Mqriuspredicts YES

Starship blew up the pad, Centaur blew up itself, for both it's unclear how long it's going to take to fix it. Pretty much 50/50 now — SpaceX iterates faster but the Centaur issue seemed less serious.

Mqriuspredicts YES

Mqriusbought Ṁ35 of YES

Related market about making a full orbit:

Evan Daniel bought Ṁ25 YES from 81% to 82%

Jacob Dean bought Ṁ20 NO from 83% to 81%

MayMeta sold Ṁ18 NO from 82% to 83%

Evan Daniel bought Ṁ25 YES from 81% to 82%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ54/Ṁ100 YES at 81% (cancelled) 🤖

vlovic bought Ṁ100 YES from 77% to 80%

N M bought Ṁ10 YES from 76% to 77%

nmk456 bought Ṁ5 NO from 77% to 76%

Daniel Tilkin bought Ṁ10 NO from 78% to 77%

FM bought Ṁ5 YES at 78%

Pablo Villalobos bought Ṁ10 YES from 77% to 78%

ianminds bought Ṁ20 YES at 77%

Berg sold Ṁ60 YES from 79% to 77%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 NO at 79% (cancelled) 🤖

Blomfilter bought Ṁ100 YES from 77% to 81%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ22/Ṁ100 NO at 77% (cancelled) 🤖

Christopher Kalitin sold Ṁ34 NO from 76% to 80%

Ivan Zagrebin bought Ṁ20 YES from 75% to 76%

Mqrius bought Ṁ120 YES from 69% to 75%

Mqrius bought Ṁ10 NO from 70% to 69%

Blomfilter bought Ṁ25 YES from 69% to 70%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 NO at 69% (cancelled) 🤖

Blomfilter bought Ṁ60 YES from 67% to 71%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ100 NO at 67% (cancelled) 🤖

Blomfilter bought Ṁ60 YES from 66% to 70%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ49/Ṁ100 YES at 66% (cancelled) 🤖

NGK bought Ṁ50 NO from 69% to 62%

Josh Wilkes filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ33 NO at 80% (cancelled)

Josh Wilkes created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 60% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ42/Ṁ100 NO at 69% (cancelled) 🤖

Josh Wilkes bought Ṁ325 YES from 51% to 75%

Josh Wilkes sold Ṁ5 NO at 51%

MayMeta bought Ṁ20 NO from 53% to 51%

Sören bought Ṁ10 YES from 52% to 53%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 NO at 52% (cancelled) 🤖

Sailfish bought Ṁ30 YES from 50% to 53%

Tom Bouley sold Ṁ17 NO from 48% to 50%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ100 NO at 48% (cancelled) 🤖

Laurenz Hemmen bought Ṁ50 YES from 44% to 50%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 NO at 44% (cancelled) 🤖

Mqrius bought Ṁ55 YES from 37% to 45%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ7 YES at 37% (cancelled) 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 YES at 36% (cancelled) 🤖

Christopher Kalitin bought Ṁ100 NO from 42% to 33%

Josh Wilkes filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ6 YES at 40%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ24/Ṁ100 NO at 42% (cancelled) 🤖

Quantum Observer bought Ṁ55 YES from 36% to 45%

Berg bought Ṁ20 YES from 33% to 36%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ21 YES at 33% (cancelled) 🤖

Blomfilter sold Ṁ120 YES from 48% to 30%

Related questions

Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in October 2023?

Chris Billington

28% chance

Will Starship reach space in 2023?

61% chance

Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in September 2023?

Chris Billington

2% chance

Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of September 2023?

2% chance

Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of November?

64% chance

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

41% chance

STARSHIP launch 2 ending in FLIGHT TERMINATION SYSTEM

49% chance

How long will the next Starship flight last?

40. Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2023?

34% chance

Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of October 2023?

30% chance

Will another Starship launch attempt be made in Q3 2023?

1% chance

Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in November 2023?

Chris Billington

35% chance

Will the next Starship Orbital flight attempt occur before September 23rd?

Chris Billington

0% chance

Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of October 2023?

32% chance

Will the next full stack launch of Starship (after 4/20) occur before the end of 2023?

73% chance

Starship next launch

Will NASA end the current New Horizons Mission?

Sorin Tanase Nicola

49% chance

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

14% chance

Will Starship complete a successful orbital test flight before Vulcan can complete it’s first Mission?

54% chance

SpaceX’s Starship will reach orbit [in 2023]

34% chance