
Will Starship reach space before Vulcan?
35
closes Dec 31
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ12 +22%
New probability
82%
Reaching an altitude of 100km counts as reaching space. The rockets don't need to get into orbit.
The intention is for this market to be about the timing of the first flight of Vulcan vs the first OFT of a full stack Starship. Both are aiming to launch in March 2023.
Get Ṁ500 play money
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Looks like they didn't reach 100km altitude yet, if I saw it correctly. Will, review, but probably we'll have to wait for the next test, or Vulcan!
1 reply

Mqriuspredicts YES
Starship blew up the pad, Centaur blew up itself, for both it's unclear how long it's going to take to fix it. Pretty much 50/50 now — SpaceX iterates faster but the Centaur issue seemed less serious.


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