Will Starship reach space before Vulcan?

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Ṁ21k

resolved Nov 18

Resolved

YES

ALL

Reaching an altitude of 100km counts as reaching space. The rockets don't need to get into orbit.

The intention is for this market to be about the timing of the first flight of Vulcan vs the first OFT of a full stack Starship. Both are aiming to launch in March 2023.

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predicted YES

Whodathunk a year ago that Starship would launch twice before Vulcan could go once :D

Should resolve YES.

predicted NO

Vulcan has a launch date of Dec 24 this year

predicted YES

How would this resolve if

https://spacenews.com/first-vulcan-launch-further-delayed-for-centaur-modifications/

First Vulcan launch further delayed for Centaur modifications

The inaugural launch of United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan Centaur rocket faces new delays to make “minor reinforcements” to part of the Centaur upper stage.

Looks like they didn't reach 100km altitude yet, if I saw it correctly. Will, review, but probably we'll have to wait for the next test, or Vulcan!

predicted YES

Starship blew up the pad, Centaur blew up itself, for both it's unclear how long it's going to take to fix it. Pretty much 50/50 now — SpaceX iterates faster but the Centaur issue seemed less serious.

predicted YES

Related market about making a full orbit:

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