Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98 (you are here)
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa
Related questions
@AntonSpiridonov In case you missed it, note that these markets are about whether there is a launch attempt in a given month, they are not specifically about the next launch attempt.
An expectation value of 1.37 months in which there is at least one launch attempt in 2023 seems not too unreasonable to me.
@chrisjbillington yes I understand, that this is theoretically possible. Thank you for feedback
Why are you people buying this! Short October & September instead!
(I mean, please keep buying, I love free arbitrage. But like.)
@797a note that this market is about whether there will be an attempt in Nov at all, it is not specific to the next attwmpt. So this is not mutually exclusive with there being attempts (successful or otherwise) in previous months.
You could have a scrub on Oct 31st and a launch Nov 1st and both this market and the Oct equivalent would resolve YES
@chrisjbillington Sure, but isn't that fairly improbable? I can understand 105%, maybe 110% across the three markets, not 115%.
@797a the scrub scenario is somewhat unlikely, but add in the probability they'll actually do a launch in Sep and also in Nov, and the excess over 100% gets a little higher.
I haven't checked what the various markets sum to and whether it seems sensible, just wanted to make sure you understood what you were betting on!
The way these markets work is that they're not about just the next test but any subsequent tests also count, right?
