Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in November 2023?
305
5k
2.1k
resolved Nov 18
Resolved
YES

Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.

For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.

I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.

The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98 (you are here)

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa

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bought Ṁ50 of NO

Not previously reported: the US Army Corps is involved with the Endangered Species Act/Environmental Review. They are only brought in as a consultant if the project would involve digging up wetland.

Does SpaceX need to have a full treatment pond to collect deluge water? The answer, legally is yes, but there are signs Federal Regulators might agree 👀

2 traders bought Ṁ26 NO
predicted NO

"a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test"

How far along in the countdown does a scrub count? If they're t-minus 4 hours and they scrub, does a scrub count? What about t-minus 1 hour? t-minus 10 minutes?

predicted YES

@Domer I think as long as the stream is up and intention is shown.

predicted YES

@Eliza

I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital,

Looks like it could be many hours before, as long as the stream started.

predicted YES

@Eliza There is a link earlier in the comment thread to a stream, that is not live, but if that one went live it would probably be a yes unless the description of the stream changes.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@Domer Sorry I didn't see this comment earlier. Yes, @Eliza is correct, a scrub after the stream goes live counts, and one before doesn't. Resolution is purely about the livestream going live (as long as the livestream is actually intended to show a launch attempt).

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington but if the stream goes live, and there is no countdown, that won't count, right? Do SpaceX launch streams always start with a countdown?

predicted YES

@Domer Some people are calling 17th to 18th a delay not a scrub because they didn't really start the attempt.

@chrisjbillington Do we need to be concerned about such definitions of scrub vs delay or is just a livestream starting that makes it sufficient for yes?

I am taking it that

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1725226827294064904

shows a countdown to a livestream rather than a livestream with a countdown?

I haven't been able to find this to see if it is playing live video. Can anyone post a link to this?

If it is just video, is it a livestream or do people have to be talking to call it a livestream?

I think there is bound to be a countdown clock in a livestream, certainly at some point even if not initially and I don't see any requirement for the livestream to have a countdown timer at the start of the livestream just that there is one at some point.

predicted YES

I think all of these questions are pretty clearly answered by the resolution criteria

YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital

  • Livestream showing a

  • Live feed of

  • Starship and a

  • Countdown

Are all required.

If the livestream hasn't gone live, it's not a live feed, so that doesn't count.

Any amount of time in the countdown would still count since the resolution criteria doesn't say otherwise.

predicted NO

@jack How does that answer the question of whether it is, "Resolution is purely about the livestream going live..." or with a countdown? Those seem in conflict to me.

predicted YES

@Jacy I think Chris was slightly imprecise in the comment about what "(as long as the livestream is actually intended to show a launch attempt)" meant, and the definition of that is the one given in the market description.

In general, if an author meant to overrule the market description, it ought to be very explicit. I'm not going to accept a ambiguous comment that probably is compatible with the market description but might be read to be in conflict, unless it's made very clear.

predicted YES

@Jacy It shouldn't really matter but I said it had to have a countdown so I'll stick with that. Yes, SpaceX live streams always have a countdown. Including a countdown in the requirements is to ensure that it isn't an unrelated stream or filler content is all.

predicted NO

If the trajectory is scheduled such that the earth is circled but no deorbit burn is needed, will you count it as "near orbital"?

predicted YES

@Thomas42 Yeah, the upcoming flight test counts for this market

predicted YES

@Thomas42 Yes, the upcoming flight is intended to be near-orbital.

predicted YES

@TP8ac2 let the Boring Company Prediction Markets commence!

predicted YES

See also, specifically for the current NET of November 17th:

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Limit order for Ṁ2000 YES at 85% if anyone's interested

predicted YES

Seriously, this is what the U.S. Fish and Dogcatcher Service was having SpaceX do these past few months:

I must conclude that these government "people" are actively evil.

bought Ṁ40 of NO

@AlQuinn

If you believe that, why would you assume they will approve a launch license?

predicted YES

@TP8ac2 Why do you assume that I assume that? At least we now also know the odds of Starship accidentally landing on a shark or whale.

predicted NO

@AlQuinn I asssumed because you’re betting that this market will resolve yes.

predicted YES

@TP8ac2 ah right. I put M10 down on markets just to follow the updates & usually bet in the optimistic direction when I do that. I have no idea how many more explosion sounds F&W will have SpaceX blast into the ears of marine fauna before issuing a license.

predicted YES

@AlQuinn fwiw this happened earlier, I think during the environmental assessment. But yeah it's kinda crazy.