Will Starship reach orbit? (#2)
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270Ṁ6991resolved Nov 19
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Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
88% chance
When will Starship complete an orbit?
By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 6 times before the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 7 times before the end of 2025?
1% chance
When will Starship reach orbit?
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 8 times before the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2026?
1% chance
Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
5% chance
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Didn't reach orbit or near-orbit, exploded before SECO.
-1740km perigee (i.e. inside the earth), 150km apogee. Planned was something like 50 × 250 km.
(McDowell is an authority on this)
Resolves NO
@Gigacasting flight 2 plan is same as flight 1 technically suborbital but essentially demonstrates could have gone orbital. If as intended it does 3/4 of way round Earth does that count and cause yes resolution? or a no resolution? or is this something else like wait for first orbital attempt?
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Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
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