![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fdream%252F9P1zvDIKsF.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3Da25cdfb1-fec0-466d-af4d-312735bb64d4&w=3840&q=75)
Will Starship reach orbit? (#2)
Basic
16
Ṁ6991resolved Nov 19
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ147 | |
2 | Ṁ100 | |
3 | Ṁ45 | |
4 | Ṁ41 | |
5 | Ṁ26 |
Sort by:
Didn't reach orbit or near-orbit, exploded before SECO.
-1740km perigee (i.e. inside the earth), 150km apogee. Planned was something like 50 × 250 km.
(McDowell is an authority on this)
Resolves NO
@Gigacasting flight 2 plan is same as flight 1 technically suborbital but essentially demonstrates could have gone orbital. If as intended it does 3/4 of way round Earth does that count and cause yes resolution? or a no resolution? or is this something else like wait for first orbital attempt?
Related questions
Related questions
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
94% chance
When will Starship reach orbit?
By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?
When will Starship complete an orbit?
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 6 times before the end of 2025?
63% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 7 times before the end of 2025?
45% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 8 times before the end of 2025?
31% chance
Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2026?
13% chance
Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
18% chance