Will Starship reach orbit? (#2)
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270Ṁ6991resolved Nov 19
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Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
88% chance
By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?
When will Starship reach orbit?
When will Starship complete an orbit?
Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
5% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 6 times before the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 7 times before the end of 2025?
13% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 8 times before the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2026?
7% chance
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Didn't reach orbit or near-orbit, exploded before SECO.
-1740km perigee (i.e. inside the earth), 150km apogee. Planned was something like 50 × 250 km.
(McDowell is an authority on this)
Resolves NO
@Gigacasting flight 2 plan is same as flight 1 technically suborbital but essentially demonstrates could have gone orbital. If as intended it does 3/4 of way round Earth does that count and cause yes resolution? or a no resolution? or is this something else like wait for first orbital attempt?
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Related questions
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
88% chance
By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?
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Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
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