Will Starship reach orbit? (#2)
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Ṁ270Ṁ7kresolved Nov 19
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When will Starship complete an orbit?
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
92% chance
When will Starship reach orbit?
Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
4% chance
When will Starship reach orbit?
10/13/26
By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?
Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?
90% chance
Will Starship Ship 42 be the first to fly to orbit and be caught by the tower?
40% chance
Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2027?
3% chance
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Didn't reach orbit or near-orbit, exploded before SECO.
-1740km perigee (i.e. inside the earth), 150km apogee. Planned was something like 50 × 250 km.
(McDowell is an authority on this)
Resolves NO
@Gigacasting flight 2 plan is same as flight 1 technically suborbital but essentially demonstrates could have gone orbital. If as intended it does 3/4 of way round Earth does that count and cause yes resolution? or a no resolution? or is this something else like wait for first orbital attempt?
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Related questions
When will Starship complete an orbit?
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
92% chance
When will Starship reach orbit?
Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
4% chance
When will Starship reach orbit?
10/13/26
By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?
Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?
90% chance
Will Starship Ship 42 be the first to fly to orbit and be caught by the tower?
40% chance
Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2027?
3% chance