lol y'all so bullish based on more spaceX announcements that they're chomping at the bit. fish and wildlife service says they won't need the 135 days to give a response, but doesn't mean that response is a thumbs up. between the potential for more regulatory chiding, weather, scheduling issues, technical problems... I'm just saying 80% is high

bought Ṁ170 of YES

@Stralor Streamers are packing up their cameras to head over there as we speak. SpaceX has sent emails to the media detailing how they can set up their cameras for a tentative launch in mid-November.

I find these markets a little frustrating because there is irrationality pushing in both directions, which means I have to figure out which is dominating at any time to profit, it's tricky.

On the one hand, people don't factor in unexpected delays enough - this is the point you're making.

On the other hand, insiders really do have knowledge of how the regulatory process is coming along, and when they start acting like they're aiming toward a specific date, that means they know something. It's not the case that regulatory approval is radio silence for a random time and then approval out of the blue - it's a process that insiders are aware of the progress of.

bought Ṁ100 YES from 80% to 82%

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington good points! I'll concede the debate but hold the position. irrational gut still says it's not this year.

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington Did they not also do this in september?

predicted NO

@WieDan Yes, it was looking pretty promising then too. It didn't pan out, but I think the info leaking was meaningful and it was right to bet markets up at the time. Not super high of course, but higher than otherwise.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington They had a notmar and everything. I think they genuinely didn't see the FWS review coming.

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington
Well here is where we disagree. I don't really follow spacex at all, but I understand government bureaucracy and I knew that granting a license in under 6 weeks was impossible. So I bet everything I had at the time on it not happening.

I don't have any special insight or knowledge this time around, a license could be granted in theory. But I'm wary of spacex hype since then, so I'm just betting against you people(in much more moderate amounts) because you've proven to be crazy wrong in the past.

predicted YES

@WieDan It does tend to be good profits to bet against space markets. But maybe if we bet the market high it'll fly sooner 🤔

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@WieDan Indeed this is where we disagree. I've placed a Ṁ1000 limit order at 65% if you'd like to bet over the disagreement. Or perhaps betting in /chrisjbillington/will-spacexs-launch-license-for-a-s would be more fitting. I've put a Ṁ1000 YES order at 45% there too.

I'm not sure I can say anything to further the actual discussion, other than that my priors about insider info being meaningful (and not just hype) are clearly stronger than yours, and I didn't update them much when it didn't pan out last time (which I think was correct).

The hype in advance of the first launch was basically correct IIRC. SpaceX knew the license was coming, it was issued on April 14th, and SpaceX made a launch attempt on April 17th. They clearly have ongoing knowledge about the state of the bureaucratic process, it's just that it's not any kind of guarantee, any more than is anyone else giving you updates on how some work of theirs is coming along.

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington as I said I'm not that confident this time. A license could be granted now, it's not an insane thing to happen. I am just distrustful of insiders with trackrecord of predicting things that are theoretically impossible.

predicted YES

@Mqrius re "had a notmar and everything, I think they genuinely didn't see the FWS review coming."

There was a notmar for ~8? September but I think you are wrong/confused/not remembering timeline correctly. The timeline

6 Sept Mishap investigation was still open

8 Sept Mishap investigation with 63 items closed

10 Sept Musk tweets "Congrats to SpaceX for completing & documented the 57 items required by the FAA for Flight 2 of Starship! Worth noting that 6 of the 63 items refer to later flights." with list

13 Sept SpaceX knew FWS work needed

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/faa-could-advance-spacex-starship-license-soon-october-2023-09-13/

"We're working well with them and have been in good discussions. Teams are working together and I think we're optimistic sometime next month," acting FAA Administrator Polly Trottenberg told reporters on the sidelines of a conference.

SpaceX would still need a separate environmental approval from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service before a launch. Trottenberg did not say how long that might take."

24 October Wet dress rehearsal

This came after the FAA sent FWS a letter in August, which requested “reinitiation of Endangered Species Act consultation

https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/10/18/spacex-battles-regulatory-process-that-could-hold-up-starship-test-flight-for-months/

I think it is quite clear the NOTMAR for 8 Sept was very speculative and the mishap investigation was still open when this was requested. I think they were working closely and SpaceX would have been aware of August letter being sent.

predicted YES

@WieDan I am sot so sure it is predicting impossible things. I think it is more like experts with some inside knowledge saying things like 'sounds like IFT2 could be soon' where they mean soon as a month or two but the fans get excited by this and start thinking soon means a week or two.

predicted NO

@ChristopherRandles They were more specific than that. SpaceX was gearing up for a launch in September and the insider info said as much. Read the comment history of our favourite reddit insider:

Sep 5th:

Aiming for launch readiness as early as next week and the launch as early as start of mid September. FAA process expected “soon” but we could still be a few weeks away.

Sep 11th:

The SpaceX team is ready to launch it in the coming days but dependent on the launch license process.

Admittedly this is mostly about SpaceX readiness and not the FAA, though they said "soon" about the license. Now they appear to have higher hopes about the license, though it's still not like they can know exactly what day they'll get it:

Oct 24th:

Todays test went well. Launch NET early second week of November. Regulatory process going well. Now final launch preps.

Oct 25th:

November 6 is the NET at SpaceX, we are hoping that the regulatory side is on its final leg. Did hear positive news on the anticipated schedule for completion. No concerns on the technical readiness. Do have a few items as final launch preps but no concern for meeting the NET.

Oct 31st:

Were expecting license to come in but that did not happen. Now NET 13th.

sold Ṁ64 of NO

@chrisjbillington Well guess you were right this time

predicted NO

@WieDan Are you basing that on the license that's on the FAA's page presently? That's the old license, it only authorises the first launch and needs to be modified to authorise more flights. Or you've seen news I haven't?

@chrisjbillington I based it on your comments. I guess I didn't read them right.

I think I confused witch thread the comment was made in.

predicted NO

@WieDan Ah! I was trying to find the FAAs list of licenses generally. I was confirming that the page linked did contain the list of FAA licenses we were looking for, not a new one for SpaceX specifically.

@chrisjbillington Yeah I see now, I saw it in my notifications and read too quickly. Ah well. My position was very small so it isn't that consequential.

predicted NO

@WieDan You can buy your NO back here at least. And you can buy some of your NO back in the November markets - I arbed them but didn't bet them back to what they were.