Will Starship reach space in 2023?
resolved Nov 18

Resolves YES if SpaceX Starship reaches an altitude of at least 100km (the Karman line definition of space) in 2023, otherwise NO.

This question is about vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.

(This question's criteria is chosen to be less ambiguous than the questions about whether it reaches orbit, where it is unclear whether a planned borderline-orbital test flight, with perigee within the atmosphere, counts as orbital.)

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predicted NO

💸 Worth it

bought Ṁ5,000 of YES

Resolves YES @jack

bought Ṁ3,000 of YES

@chrisjbillington Yeah, above 100km.

predicted YES

RIP Booster 🫡

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I have so much mana tied up in Starship predictions. I will either totally smoke my league after tomorrow, or I will be a faint shadow of my former self. 🤣

bought Ṁ206 NO
predicted YES

@TrickyDuck Doesn't seem too bad :)

predicted YES

For y'all enjoyment, here's Starship IFT-1 again

predicted YES

Made some new markets:

bought Ṁ248 of NO

Elon: Was just informed that approval to launch should happen in time for a Friday launch.



predicted NO

Currently, I hold the largest position betting "NO." I would be happy to lose my $12,000. I chose to bet "NO" because, in my view, it's a win-win situation: either I earn credits, or I get to witness Starship launch into space.

predicted NO

@JeronimoD Expectation management 👍

predicted YES

@JeronimoD The “insurance bet” 😕🤣

predicted NO


Thanks Elon!

predicted YES

@JeronimoD I know it's a lot of mana but please don't rent a boat and enter the exclusion zone on Friday!

predicted YES

Starship preparing to launch as early as November 17, pending final regulatory approval - X


predicted NO

@jRich Pending regulatory approval is the whole ball game. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will determine when the next launch occurs and what steps are required for that to happen. My opinion is that Musk and SpaceX are not doing themselves any favours by pressuring (and mocking) FWS on X and in every interview.

predicted YES


U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will determine when the next launch occurs

This is kind of true, but it likely already happened, and the result is the scheduled date of Nov 17th. Further slippage of that date won't be because of FWS.

predicted NO


“…it likely already happened”

I understand that it appears FAA hasn’t yet officially issued a launch license, but where did you see evidence that FWS approved launch?

In his recent interview with Lex Fridman (at 1:18:00), Musk said “The FAA has actually given their approval, but Fish and Wildlife has yet to finish their analysis and give their approval.”


predicted YES

@TP8ac2 Not sure when that was recorded, but there have been developments in recent days. No official confirmation yet, only leaks from insiders who are anonymous but have a track record of giving good info (others dispute this as a reasonable way to follow what's going on, I disagree). And of course, the fact that SpaceX has actually set a date now. My current impression is that the license has been approved in some internal sense at the FAA, including everything about the FWS review. But the license has not yet been issued by the FAA, this is expected in the coming days prior to the launch attempt on the 17th.

lol @Cramer what do you know

predicted NO

@BillyGmoney I am probably wrong - I am cramer after all.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

its literally called Starship i dont know who let yall no betters cook

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@8 gimme yo mana 🔫 no one's going to space

bought Ṁ10 of YES
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bought Ṁ255 NO from 70% to 68%