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OpenAI

Ṁ22k
What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]
Resolved
YES
A second major version of the model has been released
Resolved
YES
Video will include sound
Resolved
NO
It will be the SOTA for text to video
Resolved
NO
A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views
See 44 more answers
Ṁ22k
Ṁ21k
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
42% chance
Ṁ21k
Ṁ3.6k
Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI video generation hold up in 2024?
N/A
Ṁ3.6k
Ṁ1k
Will OpenAI's video model Sora's capabilities be significantly less than the release post represented?
NO
Ṁ1k
Ṁ2k
Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the three months after release?
NO
Ṁ2k
Ṁ1.1k
Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?
YES
Ṁ1.1k
Attention Required! | Cloudflare
Ṁ16k
Why did Andrej Karpathy leave OpenAI?
Resolved
YES
"Pursuing personal projects"
Resolved
YES
He left out of his own free will (If he could have stayed at OpenAI, he would not have chosen to do so)
Resolved
YES
He was rich enough to do so
Resolved
NO
Differences on AI Safety
See 42 more answers
Ṁ16k
Ṁ1.2k
Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? [ACX 2024]
NO
Ṁ1.2k
Ṁ3.6k
Where will Andrej Karpathy work next after OpenAI, before 2025?
100%97%
Founds a new company - Karpathy will found a company before officially joining any existing company.
0.0%
OpenAI again - Karpathy will officially rejoin OpenAI without having officially joined any other company.
1.3%
Unknown or Remains Unemployed - Karpathy will not officially join any other company before 2025
0.1%
Anthropic
See 12 more answers
Ṁ3.6k
Ṁ1k
Will we know precisely why Andrej Karpathy left OpenAI by EOY 2024?
NO
Ṁ1k
Ṁ1.1k
By when will we know where Karpathy will work next?
Resolved
NO
Feb 13
Resolved
NO
Feb 20
Resolved
NO
Mar 1
Resolved
NO
Apr 1
See 6 more answers
Ṁ1.1k
Ṁ1.1k
Will Karpathy quit and lead the open-source AI community before April 2024?
N/A
Ṁ1.1k
Ṁ980
When will Ilya Sutskever tweet again?
100%99.2%
May
0.0%
February
0.0%
March
0.0%
April
See 4 more answers
Ṁ980
Ṁ2.9k
Where will Ilya Sutskever work next after OpenAI, before 2025?
100%99.7%
A new company - Ilya will officially leave Open AI before 2025, and found a company before officially joining any existing company.
0.2%
Never leaves - Ilya will work at OpenAI continuously until 2025
0.0%
OpenAI again - Ilya will officially leave OpenAI before 2025, but will then officially rejoin OpenAI without having officially joined any other company.
0.0%
Remains Unemployed - Ilya will officially leave Open AI before 2025, and will not officially join any other company after that.
See 10 more answers
Ṁ2.9k
Ṁ3.2k
In a year, will we think that Sam Altman leaving OpenAI reduced AI risk?
NO
Ṁ3.2k
Ṁ4.2k
Was Ilya spooked by a capabilities advance?
N/A
Ṁ4.2k
Ṁ1k
Will OpenAI become a standard C Corp before 2027
22% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ130k
Why was Sam Altman fired?
Resolved
YES
Interpersonal squabbles not related to AI safety
Resolved
YES
Told one too many little fibs/frequently dishonest about minor decisions/pathological liar
Resolved
YES
The board caught him lying several times
Resolved
YES
Because Sam/OpenAI have been intentionally misleading the board
See 179 more answers
Ṁ130k
Ṁ27k
Who will be on OpenAI's board of directors on 1 Jan 2024?
Resolved
YES
Adam D'Angelo
Resolved
YES
Bret Taylor
Resolved
YES
Larry Summers
Resolved
NO
Ilya Sutskever
See 40 more answers
Ṁ27k
Ṁ2.8k
Will OpenAI be valued more than $75 billion before the end of 2023?
NO
Ṁ2.8k
reuters.com
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OpenAI is a non-profit that owns a for profit. Their top value is as follows "We are committed to building safe, beneficial AGI that will have a massive positive impact on humanity's future".