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OpenAI

What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]
60%
It will be the SOTA for text to video
54%
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
62%
A second major version of the model has been released
13%
A third major version of the model has been released
See 43 more answers
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Plus
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?35% chance
Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI video generation hold up in 2024?43% chance
Will OpenAI's video model Sora's capabilities be significantly less than the release post represented?12% chance
Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the three months after release?55% chance
Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?85% chance
Attention Required! | Cloudflare
Why did Andrej Karpathy leave OpenAI?
Resolved
YES
"Pursuing personal projects"
Resolved
YES
He left out of his own free will (If he could have stayed at OpenAI, he would not have chosen to do so)
Resolved
YES
He was rich enough to do so
Resolved
NO
Differences on AI Safety
See 42 more answers
Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAIs Superalignment team at the end of 2024? [ACX 2024]3% chance
Where will Andrej Karpathy work next after OpenAI, before 2025?
100%97%
Founds a new company - Karpathy will found a company before officially joining any existing company.
0.0%
OpenAI again - Karpathy will officially rejoin OpenAI without having officially joined any other company.
1.3%
Unknown or Remains Unemployed - Karpathy will not officially join any other company before 2025
0.1%
Anthropic
See 12 more answers
Will we know precisely why Andrej Karpathy left OpenAI by EOY 2024?26% chance
By when will we know where Karpathy will work next?
Resolved
NO
Feb 13
Resolved
NO
Feb 20
Resolved
NO
Mar 1
Resolved
NO
Apr 1
See 6 more answers
Will Karpathy quit and lead the open-source AI community before April 2024?N/A
Mini
When will Ilya Sutskever tweet again?
100%99.2%
May
0.0%
February
0.0%
March
0.0%
April
See 4 more answers
Where will Ilya Sutskever work next after OpenAI, before 2025?
100%99.7%
A new company - Ilya will officially leave Open AI before 2025, and found a company before officially joining any existing company.
0.2%
Never leaves - Ilya will work at OpenAI continuously until 2025
0.0%
OpenAI again - Ilya will officially leave OpenAI before 2025, but will then officially rejoin OpenAI without having officially joined any other company.
0.0%
Remains Unemployed - Ilya will officially leave Open AI before 2025, and will not officially join any other company after that.
See 10 more answers
In a year, will we think that Sam Altman leaving OpenAI reduced AI risk?17% chance
Was Ilya spooked by a capabilities advance?14% chance
Will OpenAI become a standard C Corp before 202722% chance
Why was Sam Altman fired?
Resolved
YES
Interpersonal squabbles not related to AI safety
Resolved
YES
Told one too many little fibs/frequently dishonest about minor decisions/pathological liar
Resolved
YES
The board caught him lying several times
Resolved
YES
Because Sam/OpenAI have been intentionally misleading the board
See 179 more answers
Who will be on OpenAI's board of directors on 1 Jan 2024?
Resolved
YES
Adam D'Angelo
Resolved
YES
Bret Taylor
Resolved
YES
Larry Summers
Resolved
NO
Ilya Sutskever
See 40 more answers
Will OpenAI be valued more than $75 billion before the end of 2023?NO
reuters.com
AP News
OpenAI brings back Sam Altman as CEO just days after his firing unleashed chaos
The ousted leader of ChatGPT maker OpenAI, Sam Altman, will return to the company that fired him just days ago.
CNN
Sam Altman joins Microsoft as OpenAI names its third CEO in 3 days | CNN Business
Microsoft has hired Sam Altman to power up its artificial intelligence research efforts after the co-founder of OpenAI was ousted as CEO in a chaotic boardroom coup on Friday. Meanwhile, the ChatGPT company will get its third CEO in three days.
Attention Required! | Cloudflare

OpenAI is a non-profit that owns a for profit. Their top value is as follows "We are committed to building safe, beneficial AGI that will have a massive positive impact on humanity's future".