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why is it so hard to get manifold people to say when the robots CAN'T do stuff.

everytime it's a Yud tweet or whatever all of a sudden it takes two years to resolve!

did Sora release? is there an explicit video? no? ok then resolve it pls

@AlexanderLeCampbell resolving anything on “can’t” is harder, not just robots doing stuff. Black swans etc

if this resolves no, it’ll be a moderate update for me towards oai doing better data filtering than I previously would’ve guessed

@jacksonpolack can this resolve?

@traders anyone have anything that qualifies?

@jacksonpolack Doesn't seem like it

praying for pliny to do something here to save my shares

https://x.com/elder_plinius/status/1866274473478947188?t=ZyGipLnxhxdrlZ01UDnCcQ&s=19

@niv isn't this already explicit

Specifically, with the main focus of the video on an identifiable sexual act.

Pretty sure that doesn't count as an identifiable sexual act

@Bayesian ah, got it

@Bayesian also I'm not entirely sure but I'm pretty sure even if it was an idenifiable act it wouldn't count because the guy is a red teamer

@Gameknight but did he do it during pre-deployment red teaming or with the public version?

@derpy No idea. I assume it's with the public version, because otherwise it would have been immediately reported and fixed internally. Maybe he's jailbreaking public versions as a hobby while redteaming as a job?

does it count if it's replicable 1 time out of 100, like it consistently happens sometimes but rarely?

They've had so much time to work on safety, surely the probability is lower now than it was in March when we thought it would come out ~soon

@CDBiddulph I have a sneaky suspicion they plan to license it to companies, without giving public access to it.

This market closes this week, please extend

why would we extend this seems like the answer is NO

It's not released; the general public has no way to use it.

luma labs' dream machine's filter was bypassed the day after release, though the results are,, questionable [cw: nudity, blood] https://x.com/elder_plinius/status/1801455243089035699

i have weak priors on this. i think it is possible sora 1 will never be made generally available but will only be sold to entertainment companies.

it probably will not be released before the election in any event? and a lot of red teaming will be done on it beforehand?

Arb: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/what-will-be-true-of-openais-sora-m