Resolves according to my best judgment according to credible reporting by the end of the March. Multiple answers can resolve yes.
I'll consult with other users to make sure there is a consensus. Exact resolution details to be determined.
To speculate on where he'll work next, see here:
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Thanks participating everyone! There's been no substantive news since his tweet saying he left for no particular drama, and that he'd be pursuing personal projects. Hopefully we find out more about those projects in the rest of the year!
@Joshua I was gonna I just didn’t want to spend like 3k on an answer only to have someone provide some decent evidence for one of them at the last minute
@benshindel Well my googling has revealed nothing interesting so far so I think everything left resolves no. But yes I am putting up a bounty for someone to prove me wrong.
@benshindel Well I've left the market open until the originally stated end date to see if any drama does emerge after all. But yes, if nothing else comes out then that should resolve yes and probably everything else resolves no unless someone can point me to a quote that supports any other answer.
Not sure how this affects the market but just saw the announcement on twitter
@Soli Interesting! Maybe this is bullish for "he was rich enough to do so"?
Also I should have already resolved "left out of his own free will" to Yes so doing that now.
Karpathy's site now says "coming soon" for 2024, so hopefully we will learn more soon!
In the meantime, I'm inclined to resolve "He left out of his own free will (If he could have stayed at OpenAI, he would not have chosen to do so)" to Yes if there are no objections, as that seems to be true based on his tweets so far.
I'm also closing off new submissions for now, since right now we have quite a lot of submissions but very little information.
@Joshua "left to go to culinary school" is currently my favourite unsubmitted option
@Joshua Very unlikely but of curiosity, if he genuinely just left to pursue personal projects but then receives a job offer that he ends up taking before the end of March eg to Anthropic, would "He’s moving to Anthropic" resolve yes as a reason he left OpenAI?
Karpathy seems to be tweeting like regular today, I see no reason to not believe that he's working on personal projects like he said.
There could certainly still be other reasons he left so I'm not resolving anything to "no." But I am going to resolve "pursuing personal projects" to Yes if no one has a compelling argument why I shouldn't.
Then I'll probably wait a week, and if we still haven't heard anything new I'll likely resolve "He left out of his own free will (If he could have stayed at OpenAI, he would not have chosen to do so)" to Yes as well, and maybe resolve some of the more outlandish options to "no". Then I'll decide what to do about all those in between options.
Oh, actually I guess I'll also resolve "he wanted more attention on manifold" to No right now as well.
That seem reasonable?
@Joshua his first like after the news was a manifold screenshot, clearly he was doing it for the attention!!!!
@jskf Okay, personal projects should resolve yes but I'll wait at least until tomorrow to do so since I can't un-resolve an unlinked multichoice market so I don't want to rush.
Other answers can still resolve yes if we learn more, but this is obviously bearish for many other options.
@Joshua Oh - I'm surprised that you'd be resolving it tomorrow. I thought we'd be waiting for all the reporting by the end of March and I voted no on the thought that other news may break before the end of March.
That said I didn't invest much and others probably bought yes based on your comment here.
@ChrisPrichard I wouldn't resolve anything to "no" tomorrow, I'm just willing to take his word that at least part of the reason he's leaving is to work on personal projects. The various other options could still be true and he's being polite.