Same as this market but closes and resolves end of 2024
https://manifold.markets/journcy/will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up
"This market resolves YES if at close (end of **2024**) my subjective perception is that this was a good take (https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1563282607315382273) --e.g., AI-generated video really is that good--and NO if it seems like Eliezer was importantly wrong about something, e.g., AI-generated video still sucks, or still couldn't be the cause for serious doubt about whether some random moth footage was made with a camera or not."
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Feel like we're pretty close... asking @GeorgeVii ... does this need to be AI-gen video from first principles, or would stuff like this hold? (AI-gen images that are turned into little motion gifs):
@benshindel The tweet explicitly says:
> whether it's real or if the AI's prompt was "beautiful video of 15 different moth species flapping their wings, professional photography, 8k, trending on Twitter".
This wouldn't be a human-combined set of clips or a set of videos generated from images. This is much more difficult.
Big arbitrage opportunity!
https://manifold.markets/vluzko/will-there-be-realistic-ai-generate-6aeae916397c?r=RGFuVw
@DanW an entire year's gap in the two markets' timelines. This one is end of 2024, that one is end of 2023.
@makoyass He said "In 2-4 years", which puts his mean estimate at 2025-08, i.e. his probability for EOY 2024 would be <50% (he traded 72->59%)
@cloudprism Note that this video is image-to-video. Yudkowsky's tweet mentions text-to-video.
@Coagulopath well, if I made some python notebook that would automatically convert text-to-image-to-video, that would totally count. If, of course, it produces enough quality outputs.
The below contract is trading 12 pts 'rich' vs this one which expires 6m later.
Clear arb.
am I wrong?
https://manifold.markets/journcy/will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up
A bit tangential but people here might enjoy playing around with stuff like HeyGen
how accurate does it have to be in terms of species? is this from a layman perspective? i could see a point where it's identical for the average person, but someone who's an entomologist can easily see that it's a recording of a species that doesn't exist
Does this not exist at present already?
I hear reviews about Apple Vision Pro implementing this technology where it's amazing to see from virtual butterfly 🦋 flying to you. See, review by Markus Brownie
@twink_joan_didion It's not about first thought but about : AI-generated video really is that good or not
@firstuserhere I mean, i said first thought because that's what Yud's tweet says itself. but acknowledged it's subjective
I think you want to explicitly clarify here that this prediction market resolves YES if my tweet was WRONG in the sense that it OVERESTIMATED the required time and thus the 2-4 time bracket I stated was INCORRECT because the actual time was <2 years. (Am I correct?)
@EliezerYudkowsky Hmm, yes thats what I was thinking.
I think it will still have been a good take even if it overestimates, since the general culture is underestimating by many more years than you would have overestimated; & also I didn't take it as a super granular prediction, so if its off by a month or two idc.
Hope this doesn't screw your recent bet.
Tho you didn't bet this one down https://manifold.markets/journcy/will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up
so perhaps you're updating more toward 4 than 2 year timeline here?
@GeorgeVii "so if its off by a month or two idc." in the downwards direction that is.
The 2024 deadline is still strict for resolutions sake.
Actually, I'm again misstating things: This market resolves at end of 2024, while my "2-4 years" prediction made on August 26th, 2022 would be correct so long as this technology arrives no earlier than August 26th, 2024.
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