Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up? (2024 version)

Same as this market but closes and resolves end of 2024

"This market resolves YES if at close (end of **2024**) my subjective perception is that this was a good take (https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1563282607315382273) --e.g., AI-generated video really is that good--and NO if it seems like Eliezer was importantly wrong about something, e.g., AI-generated video still sucks, or still couldn't be the cause for serious doubt about whether some random moth footage was made with a camera or not."

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benshindel avatar
Ben Shindelbought Ṁ50 of YES

Feel like we're pretty close... asking @GeorgeVii ... does this need to be AI-gen video from first principles, or would stuff like this hold? (AI-gen images that are turned into little motion gifs):


DanW avatar
Dan. W. bought Ṁ150 NO from 41% to 38%
Jacy avatar
Jacybought Ṁ34 of NO

@benshindel The tweet explicitly says:

> whether it's real or if the AI's prompt was "beautiful video of 15 different moth species flapping their wings, professional photography, 8k, trending on Twitter".

This wouldn't be a human-combined set of clips or a set of videos generated from images. This is much more difficult.

firstuserherebought Ṁ9,219 ofNO
twink_joan_didion avatar

@firstuserhere well hey there sunny – didn't see this coming

Eliezer Yudkowskybought Ṁ10,400 ofNO
makoyass avatar
mako yass

no because ↑

RemiLeopard avatar
Remi Leopard

@makoyass He said "In 2-4 years", which puts his mean estimate at 2025-08, i.e. his probability for EOY 2024 would be <50% (he traded 72->59%)

Coagulopath avatar

@cloudprism Note that this video is image-to-video. Yudkowsky's tweet mentions text-to-video.

Lavander avatar
Lavanderpredicts YES

@Coagulopath well, if I made some python notebook that would automatically convert text-to-image-to-video, that would totally count. If, of course, it produces enough quality outputs.

AlexanderLeCampbell avatar
Alexander Campbellbought Ṁ16 of YES

The below contract is trading 12 pts 'rich' vs this one which expires 6m later.

Clear arb.

am I wrong?


firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicts YES

@AlexanderLeCampbell one is end of 2024, the other end of 2026

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicts YES

A bit tangential but people here might enjoy playing around with stuff like HeyGen

inculted avatar

how accurate does it have to be in terms of species? is this from a layman perspective? i could see a point where it's identical for the average person, but someone who's an entomologist can easily see that it's a recording of a species that doesn't exist

SophusCorry avatar
Sophus Corry

@inculted wrong -ologist, etymologists like words ahaha

sugarkfjfjfjs avatar
Alldjhfpredicts NO

Does this not exist at present already?

I hear reviews about Apple Vision Pro implementing this technology where it's amazing to see from virtual butterfly 🦋 flying to you. See, review by Markus Brownie

twink_joan_didion avatar
tjdbought Ṁ24 of NO

@sugar Idk but upon seeing that and reading the tweet again, my "first thought" would not be to question or believe it was casually generated by a 10-20 word prompt like "beautiful video of 15 different butterfly species flapping their wings, professional photography, 8k"

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherebought Ṁ100 of YES

@twink_joan_didion It's not about first thought but about : AI-generated video really is that good or not

twink_joan_didion avatar
tjdpredicts NO

@firstuserhere I mean, i said first thought because that's what Yud's tweet says itself. but acknowledged it's subjective

L avatar
Lbought Ṁ10 of NO

see my comment on the other market for reasoning

EliezerYudkowsky avatar
Eliezer Yudkowsky

I think you want to explicitly clarify here that this prediction market resolves YES if my tweet was WRONG in the sense that it OVERESTIMATED the required time and thus the 2-4 time bracket I stated was INCORRECT because the actual time was <2 years. (Am I correct?)

GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeViipredicts YES

@EliezerYudkowsky Hmm, yes thats what I was thinking.
I think it will still have been a good take even if it overestimates, since the general culture is underestimating by many more years than you would have overestimated; & also I didn't take it as a super granular prediction, so if its off by a month or two idc.

Hope this doesn't screw your recent bet.
Tho you didn't bet this one down https://manifold.markets/journcy/will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up
so perhaps you're updating more toward 4 than 2 year timeline here?

GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeViipredicts YES

@GeorgeVii "so if its off by a month or two idc." in the downwards direction that is.
The 2024 deadline is still strict for resolutions sake.

EliezerYudkowsky avatar
Eliezer Yudkowskypredicts NO

Actually, I'm again misstating things: This market resolves at end of 2024, while my "2-4 years" prediction made on August 26th, 2022 would be correct so long as this technology arrives no earlier than August 26th, 2024.

Gigacasting avatar

This guy *****:

Gigacasting avatar

100x better than the meta paper