What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]
406
22kṀ100k
2026
24%
It will be the SOTA for text to video
35%
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
71%
A second major version of the model has been released
11%
A third major version of the model has been released
18%
It has been renamed
7%
Full description of model architecture will be public
89%
By default, the generated videos will be watermarked
58%
It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes
13%
It will be free to use
20%
It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo
8%
OpenAI will release the number of model parameters
28%
It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform
9%
It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)
78%
It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)
86%
A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space
31%
It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)
58%
costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50
40%
it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country
80%
OpenAI will be sued over the model
3%
OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model

Unless otherwise specified, the options are about the state of OpenAI's latest video model at the end of 2025. Options about things that might happen before then, or by a specific date before then, are also acceptable.

I'll N/A duplicates and options I consider to not be valid. If an option refers to an external source, I encourage the option creator to notify me when/if the option should resolve.

For the purpose of this market, any Text-to-Video model released by OpenAI after Sora will count.

Some clarification:

  • "released" counts widespread public release OR widespread access to corporations, through partnerships or wtv else

  • the "Nth" model doesn't require release in the sense mentioned above. Sora is the 1st model, whether or not it ever gets "released". any new model announced after Sora for text-to-video counts as the 2nd model. and so on.

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