How does this resolve if it was banned at some point during the year, but was unbanned later in 2024 (a la ChatGPT in Italy)

@CharlesPaul the phrasing means it's asking about whether it'll be banned at the end of 2025. to ask whether it would be banned for any temporary amount of time in any EU country, you could ask "it'll have been banned in at least one EU country for at least some amount of time" or smth

does “free to use” resolve yes if they have a set up like “each user gets 30 minutes a month of video free, but you have to pay beyond that.” What about if they have a similar situation to GPT3 before Nobember 2022 where you got free tokens for signing up with them, but once they are gone you had to pay?

@Clark

@Bayesian I guess I'd argue YES in the first example and NO in the second- the difference being that the tokens renew themselves regularly and give the user continued use. Happy to defer to your resolution if it gets complicated.

what if it's free via, like, Bing Chat, and sustainably so, so not just a one-time free amount of tokens?

I would guess that would count as YES

It's interesting that people, given his NO positioon, are essentially betting that @EliezerYudkowsky will change his mind and state during the next two years that the Sora line is a threat to civilization.

I can see this logic, in that this model is the closest to "AGI" (whatever that means) there is now, and there could be some rapid advance that surprises everyone. He would see a capabilities advance very negatively, so I might take YES on this if it were cheaper.

@SteveSokolowski you could have a video model that outputs a perfect ten hour television series exactly to your specifications and i don't think it would be as dangerous as I expect LLMs in a few years to be

@SemioticRivalry I think I said in another market that people are missing the big picture with Sora.

It's not about video; watching movies is a sideshow. It's about Sora generating an internal scene, making predictions about what is going to happen, and moving through it. You can tell it to do a lot more than an LLM, and connect its output to take real world actions based on its time-series predictions.

@SteveSokolowski Training something to generate text can only be successful if that something itself understands human thought, but when generating videos (for most videos at least) you only need to understand concepts like 3d space, time, physics which are much less likely to lead to dangerous stuff like agency, planning, general intelligence than human thought (imo). There are some videos which do require understanding human thought to generate, so (imo) your proposed system will be possible, but I think it will always lag behind text-based model in "AGI-ness".

50c$ per minute video? I think we are off of many order of magnitude, considering that gpt-4 vision costs would cost 1c per frame to just see the video, not generate every single pixel of it. I wouldn't be surprised if Sora, as it is today, requires >1000 GPUs to run for single instance (and maybe over 10K). It might well be not even in production at the end of next year.

For this does C2PA count as watermarking?

@AnilJason No not if there’s no visual indicator on videos by default

@Bayesian At least that seems like what the definition of watermarking is on google, lmk if you disagree / why

Public access

This only counts intentional-for-product-reasons or legally-mandated revocation, right? So a technical issue taking it down for a day doesn't count. What if new signups are disabled due to limited capacity?

Ambiguous wording. Very likely to be accessible through chatgpt interface (through fuction calling by LLM, same as Dall-e), very unlikely to be literally part of the model (one of modalities of LLM being video generation).

How will this resolve if there's a version that's free to use?

@Clark

No reason this can't be done now....

I split this because I wanted to independently boost it, but related: /Ernie/sora-is-significantly-using-machini

@Ernie the answer has a lot of implications. If sora only uses pregenerated models, then you'll have to go way out of your way to generate porn with it. There will be ways ofc

Would you count ChatGPT having a different logo than OpenAI's logo? (the green hexagon vs black n' white hexagon respectively)

@Clark

@Bayesian I think that's the same logo in a different color scheme.