Unless otherwise specified, the options are about the state of OpenAI's latest video model at the end of 2025. Options about things that might happen before then, or by a specific date before then, are also acceptable.
I'll N/A duplicates and options I consider to not be valid. If an option refers to an external source, I encourage the option creator to notify me when/if the option should resolve.
For the purpose of this market, any Text-to-Video model released by OpenAI after Sora will count.
Some clarification:
"released" counts widespread public release OR widespread access to corporations, through partnerships or wtv else
the "Nth" model doesn't require release in the sense mentioned above. Sora is the 1st model, whether or not it ever gets "released". any new model announced after Sora for text-to-video counts as the 2nd model. and so on.
Update 2025-12-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "It will be free to use" will resolve based on Sora 2 (OpenAI's latest video generation model before end of year 2025), not the image generation feature or other components.
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@Bayesian as there is no preffered definition for SOTA provided, does that mean the question should resolve to N/A?
According to all the reviews, Sora 2 is actually state-of-the-art for text-to-video generation.
It works perfectly from the text prompts and generates high-quality video, art.
@Areal also most of traders: https://manifold.markets/Pyra/will-a-transformer-based-model-be-s?r=QXJlYWw
buy shares of Sora 2 being a SOTA
@Bayesian Sora (by OpenAI) is widely considered State-of-the-Art (SOTA) for text-to-video generation.
based on Sora 2 (OpenAI's latest video generation model , it is extremely capable , may tell definition as SOTA
Any other considerations?
@Areal especially Sora 2
It creates extremely realistic videos from simple prompts
Sora 2 is SOTA because it makes videos that look more realistic and stay consistent over time. It also follows instructions much better than older models.
@Bayesian ̶ ̶I̶ ̶k̶i̶n̶d̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶f̶e̶l̶t̶ ̶l̶i̶k̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶p̶i̶r̶i̶t̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶m̶a̶r̶k̶e̶t̶ ̶w̶a̶s̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶v̶i̶d̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶
Confirmed, I was able to generate vid for free rip 23k
@Quillist market description imo makes it clear, this resolves based on the latest openai videogen model before EOY 2025, so sora 2
Well this is my biggest loss yet so I'll make a quick ledger of misjudgment for historical sake, and as humiliation punishment.
There were 2 things I got really really wrong:
1) The insane speed of cost reduction in video generation. I had a feeling that I fucked up about 6 months ago, which is why I stayed out of the full high quality movie market. Around the time I made the meat of my bets, Dallie 3 was priced at like 10¢ an image with no public consensus on whether the service was even profitable. The thought of allowing over 100 million users to generate likely 10s-100s dollar worth of content did not seem like a possibility.
2) Sam’s messianic ability to raise over $60 billion, and investors’ willingness to take flagrant risks, like letting over 100 million users generate dollars worth of content for free.
Me rn
@Bayesian Is your statement: “the market description, in my opinion, makes it clear that this resolves based on the latest OpenAI video-generation model before the end of 2025, i.e., Sora 2” - also valid for the question “It will be the SOTA for text-to-video”?
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=sora,Ai%20video
Looks pretty popular to me, although it's not exactly clear to me what the comparison should be.
This should resolve yes in my opinion: the logo used for the app (also seen in the watermarks; "Cloud-chan" as some people call it) bears no resemblance to the usual OpenAI butthole logo.
@JamesF Can you clarify what "sued over the model" means? Is this sued for damages due to video generated by the model, or sued over their use of training data for the model, or sued over using a proprietary file format as part of the model, or something else entirely?
I'm trying to get a feel for what kind of lawsuits should qualify, or if any lawsuit even slightly related to the model should qualify.
Latest Sora ‘short film’ released here - https://youtu.be/yplb0yBEiRo?feature=shared
But given most offical openAI videos only get max 2M I doubt it’ll reach 100M
@JamesF good question, I didn't really expect what's happening with the 1st model to happen when i made that option. ig I'll go for:
if users or corporations can widely request access and a large # of em get access, it counts as released
open to feedback / disagreement, like if many ppl saw it differently im willing to consider N/A and remake the option more clearly