There's been much speculation that after he helped fire Sam Altman, Ilya Sutskever won't be at OpenAI for long.
This resolves to the first answer which becomes true. So if he leaves OpenAI, joins Anthropic, then joins Meta this still resolves to Anthropic. Counts only full time employment.
If Ilya doesn't leave OpenAI, then this resolves to "Ilya will work at OpenAI continuously until January 1st, 2025". I will be strict in counting what qualifies as him officially leaving. If he says "I quit" in an argument but doesn't sign any papers and is back the same day then he never officially left, for example.
I may update these criteria if someone suggests improvements within the spirit of the market.
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According to The Information, he's still in talks about staying at the company
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/sam-altman-to-return-to-openai-board-of-directors
I'm ngl I'm such a bleeding heart and I haven't managed to unplug my empathy module yet; when I see him just continually get flogged ad nauseam in the public square I feel badly for him. especially since he clearly thought he was doing the right thing in some regard then took accountability for a mistake - and now he's just hit as a homewrecker while Sam is the alpha of the polycule 😕
Ilya has a good relationship with Elon, right? But Google can probably pay best. I feel like those two are the most likely, personally.
Here's the existing markets for arb: