Where will Ilya Sutskever work next after OpenAI, before 2025?
Never leaves - Ilya will work at OpenAI continuously until 2025
OpenAI again - Ilya will officially leave OpenAI before 2025, but will then officially rejoin OpenAI without having officially joined any other company.
xAI/X/Anything Elon Controlled
Remains Unemployed - Ilya will officially leave Open AI before 2025, and will not officially join any other company after that.

There's been much speculation that after he helped fire Sam Altman, Ilya Sutskever won't be at OpenAI for long.

If he officially leaves before 2025, what company will he officially join next? Feel free to add your own options, as long as they do not overlap with existing options. If people trade on an option you add, you'll receive trader bonuses! I may close submissions if someone starts adding troll options, and authorize any mods to do so if I'm not online.

This resolves to the first answer which becomes true. So if he leaves OpenAI, joins Anthropic, then joins Meta this still resolves to Anthropic. Counts only full time employment.

If Ilya doesn't leave OpenAI, then this resolves to "Ilya will work at OpenAI continuously until January 1st, 2025". I will be strict in counting what qualifies as him officially leaving. If he says "I quit" in an argument but doesn't sign any papers and is back the same day then he never officially left, for example.

I may update these criteria if someone suggests improvements within the spirit of the market.

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I feel like when he tweets again it will be to either report that they worked out how he's staying at OAI or he'll be announcing he's leaving. Market:

Never leaves - Ilya will work at OpenAI continuously until 2025
bought Ṁ10 Never leaves - Ilya ... NO

Massive lack of evidence he's working there at all

Id bet against him having acess to the main code repo right now. But we may never find out

bought Ṁ10 Never leaves - Ilya ... YES

According to The Information, he's still in talks about staying at the company




Never leaves - Ilya will work at OpenAI continuously until 2025

people who are doubling down on Ilya staying at OpenAI. why? genuinely curious

@trixwit I for one am simply confused.

bought Ṁ25 of xAI/X/Anything Elon ... YES

there's no way Ilya staying

I'm ngl I'm such a bleeding heart and I haven't managed to unplug my empathy module yet; when I see him just continually get flogged ad nauseam in the public square I feel badly for him. especially since he clearly thought he was doing the right thing in some regard then took accountability for a mistake - and now he's just hit as a homewrecker while Sam is the alpha of the polycule 😕





eternal damnation culture is the real enemy force

bought Ṁ25 of Never leaves - Ilya ... YES

Ilya has a good relationship with Elon, right? But Google can probably pay best. I feel like those two are the most likely, personally.

Here's the existing markets for arb: