There's been much speculation that after he helped fire Sam Altman, Ilya Sutskever won't be at OpenAI for long.
This resolves to the first answer which becomes true. So if he leaves OpenAI, joins Anthropic, then joins Meta this still resolves to Anthropic. Counts only full time employment.
If Ilya doesn't leave OpenAI, then this resolves to "Ilya will work at OpenAI continuously until January 1st, 2025". I will be strict in counting what qualifies as him officially leaving. If he says "I quit" in an argument but doesn't sign any papers and is back the same day then he never officially left, for example.
I may update these criteria if someone suggests improvements within the spirit of the market.
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I think he can go to Sber. He is from Russia and Sber trying to fight with other companies over the world. It will be the most perfect solution
Oh I should probably not have submissions open in case people add things that overlap. If you leave suggestions as comments I'll add them for you though.
I feel like when he tweets again it will be to either report that they worked out how he's staying at OAI or he'll be announcing he's leaving. Market:
Massive lack of evidence he's working there at all
Id bet against him having acess to the main code repo right now. But we may never find out
According to The Information, he's still in talks about staying at the company
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/sam-altman-to-return-to-openai-board-of-directors
I'm ngl I'm such a bleeding heart and I haven't managed to unplug my empathy module yet; when I see him just continually get flogged ad nauseam in the public square I feel badly for him. especially since he clearly thought he was doing the right thing in some regard then took accountability for a mistake - and now he's just hit as a homewrecker while Sam is the alpha of the polycule 😕
Ilya has a good relationship with Elon, right? But Google can probably pay best. I feel like those two are the most likely, personally.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?