Where will Ilya Sutskever work next after OpenAI, before 2025?

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208

Ṁ49k

resolved Jun 19

100%99.7%

A new company - Ilya will officially leave Open AI before 2025, and found a company before officially joining any existing company.

0.2%

Never leaves - Ilya will work at OpenAI continuously until 2025

0.0%

OpenAI again - Ilya will officially leave OpenAI before 2025, but will then officially rejoin OpenAI without having officially joined any other company.

0.0%

Remains Unemployed - Ilya will officially leave Open AI before 2025, and will not officially join any other company after that.

0.0%

Anthropic

0.0%

Microsoft

0.0%

xAI/X/Anything Elon Controlled

0.0%

Facebook/Meta

0.0%

Google/Alphabet

0.0%

Apple

0.0%

Mistral

0.0%

Conjecture

0.0%

Redwood Research

0.0%Other

There's been much speculation that after he helped fire Sam Altman, Ilya Sutskever won't be at OpenAI for long.

This resolves to the first answer which becomes true. So if he leaves OpenAI, joins Anthropic, then joins Meta this still resolves to Anthropic. Counts only full time employment.

If Ilya doesn't leave OpenAI, then this resolves to "Ilya will work at OpenAI continuously until January 1st, 2025". I will be strict in counting what qualifies as him officially leaving. If he says "I quit" in an argument but doesn't sign any papers and is back the same day then he never officially left, for example.

I may update these criteria if someone suggests improvements within the spirit of the market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

I think he can go to Sber. He is from Russia and Sber trying to fight with other companies over the world. It will be the most perfect solution

Oh I should probably not have submissions open in case people add things that overlap. If you leave suggestions as comments I'll add them for you though.

bought Ṁ20 YES

@Joshua Can we have an option for Academia

relevant market

I feel like when he tweets again it will be to either report that they worked out how he's staying at OAI or he'll be announcing he's leaving. Market:

bought Ṁ10 NO

Massive lack of evidence he's working there at all

Id bet against him having acess to the main code repo right now. But we may never find out

bought Ṁ10 YES

According to The Information, he's still in talks about staying at the company

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/sam-altman-to-return-to-openai-board-of-directors

reposted

News!

people who are doubling down on Ilya staying at OpenAI. why? genuinely curious

@trixwit I for one am simply confused.

there's no way Ilya staying

I'm ngl I'm such a bleeding heart and I haven't managed to unplug my empathy module yet; when I see him just continually get flogged ad nauseam in the public square I feel badly for him. especially since he clearly thought he was doing the right thing in some regard then took accountability for a mistake - and now he's just hit as a homewrecker while Sam is the alpha of the polycule 😕

@shankypanky

#IlyaDidNothingWrong

🧡

#letpeoplebehuman

eternal damnation culture is the real enemy force

Ilya has a good relationship with Elon, right? But Google can probably pay best. I feel like those two are the most likely, personally.

Here's the existing markets for arb:

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