On August 26th, Eliezer tweeted
(https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1563282607315382273):
In 2-4 years, if we're still alive, anytime you see a video this beautiful, your first thought will be to wonder whether it's real or if the AI's prompt was "beautiful video of 15 different moth species flapping their wings, professional photography, 8k, trending on Twitter".
Will this tweet hold up? (The part about AI video generation, not about whether we'll all be dead in 2-4 years.) Giving max date range to be generous.
This market resolves YES if at close (end of 2026) my subjective perception is that this was a good take--e.g., AI-generated video really is that good--and NO if it seems like Eliezer was importantly wrong about something, e.g., AI-generated video still sucks, or still couldn't be the cause for serious doubt about whether some random moth footage was made with a camera or not.
I reserve the right to resolve to an early YES if it turns out Eliezer was obviously correct before the close date. I won't dock points if he ends up having been too conservative, e.g., a new model comes out in 6 months with perfect video generation capabilities.
I guess this market resolves N/A if we all die, but, well, y'know.
Betting policy: I will not bet in this market (any more than I already have, and I've long sold all my shares).
1,000People are also trading
I have yet to see an AI video that is comparably beautiful to the original video? Not making an argument for a NO resolution, just curious if anyone's seen anything that good from AI.
@journcy Call it? I looked back at the old moth video, and if I was seeing it today, I'd be wondering about AI. (Because of how it's a series of short clips.)
Respectfully, I disagree. Videos created by AI today are not holding up to the original moth video, and certainly people generally aren't all looking at videos posted online and thinking that they're AI. I don't think I have any chance of stopping this market from resolving YES, but I do think that it's a mistake and people who think it should resolve now should examine if they have AI blinders on.
Apparently this is AI. I didn't think twice about it the first time I saw:
seems that vidgen has begun to cross a threshold
Before too long we'll have real time, interactive versions where one specify a kind of location to drop in to, then can walk about, talk to inhabitants, prompt a storyline, prompt items into existence, etc.
The version of Odyssey that's coming out in a couple weeks is an early version
want to read the news before it happens? just read jim comments
@jim This is starting to get into the range where I myself would ask the market if it was time to call it.
@jim As a NO holder I'm happy resolving this YES on tweets like this. The quality falls short of the bar set by the moth video but it's close enough that it induces heavy skepticism.
EDIT: Veo really is a huge leap in capabilities.
This feels like an important threshold: (despite not being AI-generated)
https://x.com/joodalooped/status/1925255543029211559
This question is way too high because of a resolution detail people seem to be overlooking. I pointed it out around a year ago:
As I understand it, this market only resolves YES if there's realistic video generation AND no mechanism in place to reliably tell apart AI-generated from real video on Twitter.
I think that conditioning on realistic video, there's like at least a 20% chance civilization is forced to find a way to mark videos on Twitter as either real or AI-generated, so this question should be trading at most around 75%.
This question is not directly measuring AI video generation. Instead, it's measuring how much doubt people will feel when they look at a video on twitter. And there are ways to make the amount of doubt low!
If this is not true, @journcy or @mods should elaborate.
@Nikola It's crazy how much free mana from AI over-optimists there is constantly, including from just not properly reading the resolution criteria. And I say this as someone with fairly short timelines. But I can't invest in correctional pessimism properly, because I'm trying to free up mana to bet in other over-optimistic markets. XD
@Nikola I suspect this is not true for two reasons:
This did not happen with photoshop, even when sites like Pinterest were flooded with photos that claimed to be real, and were not.
In order for it to impact this market, the indicator would have to be crystal clear -- it would have to proceed/accompany your "first thought" about the video. I'm not sure that Community Notes clears this bar, and we are not reliably seeing even Community Notes on AI produced media.