Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve YES if at the start of January 1st, 2025, Ilya Sutskever is still serving as the leader of OpenAI's Superalignment team. Further, it resolves No if credible sources report he no longer leads it, and that credible sources do not indicate he has returned to lead it, as of the beginning of January 1st, 2025.
The resolution requires that Ilya Sutskever holds the leadership role specifically for the Superalignment team and specifically for OpenAI. The question will resolve Yes if OpenAI renames the team, but announces the team will focus on the same core set of responsibilities.
Leadership is defined as having a primary and active role in guiding the direction, decisions, and activities of the Superalignment team. It is sufficient for OpenAI to define Sutskever's role explicitly as "leading," but it is not necessary.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
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After reviewing the WilmerHale findings, the Special Committee recommended to the full Board that it endorse the November 21 decision to rehire Mr. Altman and Mr. Brockman. With knowledge of the review’s findings, the Special Committee expressed its full confidence in Mr. Altman and Mr. Brockman’s ongoing leadership of OpenAI.
The Special Committee is pleased to conclude this review and looks forward to continuing with the important work of OpenAI.
The intrigue: Altman said there's no update on whether his close associate and OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever is returning to the company in a senior role after he resigned in the wake of the board debacle.
Surprisingly, Altman admitted that he "isn't sure on the exact status" of Sutskever's employment.
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/sam-altman-davos-ai-future-interview
How can you not be sure about something like this, what the fuck?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?