In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
2.3K
37K
8.6K
2028
38%
chance

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:

This says "In 2028". Does that mean "By the end of 2028" or "On Jan 2", which is the closing date?

@MilfordHammerschmidt Again, this is the beginning of the year, which is when Scott grades his predictions. It is 3 years 10 months from now.

This is NO, pure and simple.

If this ever happens we would be talking about a very different movie industry with a correspondingly different idea of ‘high quality’.

@jrmygrdn To be clear, a shitty artless industry making shitty artless films

@jrmygrdn my guess is opposite

@calderknight Right now all AI can do is make mash-ups of what people have previously made so it is perfect for studios like Marvel.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Ellis Exactly

It seems likely that it is not difficult to use Sora to generate the same characters in different scenes and contexts, which would be enough to have some pretty cool, experimental full-length movies. Haven't actually seen it demonstrated yet, though.

@calderknight That's not generating a movie to a prompt. The market description implies a full movie, including script is generated from a single short prompt.

@ProjectVictory I am sure that if you can enter "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover" and the prompt is converted into a script, and that script is converted into various prompts for each scene, and the various resulting video generations are stitched together... this would resolve YES. (as long as the product was of a high enough quality).

bought Ṁ250 YES from 38% to 39%

Considering our existing AI models run on classical hardware that requires loading model weights each calculation and we are already advancing on more application specific hardware where memory and execution happens in the same location, there will really be no limit to what these AI can do.

Here's a question; does the AI just need a singular prompt for it to generate or is multi-model allowed i.e. gpt4 generates a script, blocks off each scene, generates images with dalle as storyboard, then can use any other techniques to get to the output such as text to voice, voice to animation, then animation as a controlnet layer for the consistency to maintain? I feel like it is absolutely possible now for a HUMAN to do the supervision and quality control, who knows what the hell we will see in the next 4 years.

bought Ṁ300 NO from 39% to 38%

https://the-decoder.com/metas-chief-ai-researcher-says-openais-world-simulator-sora-is-a-dead-end/

Are people getting a little too optimistic about Sora being able to create a full movie?

2 traders bought Ṁ200 YES
bought Ṁ200 NO at 37%

@TimothyJohnson5c16 You can also see it as Yann Le Cun dissing everything that's not I-JEPA. I'm not exagerating, he really has criticized every genAI model for images and videos that's not I-JEPA based.

@firstuserhere Agreeing with LeCun is the worst thing in the world since he always gives terrible reasons for his positions.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Pure and utter copium, of the saddest kind

opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 39% order

large limit order up

Can AI even write the script yet?

@benjaminIkuta publicly available AI can't yet, no. But 2028 is a long time away.

Question to YES holders, do you expect the stock prices of movie making companies to drop ahead of 2028? How about streaming platforms? I suppose many people would stop paying for Netflix if they could get big budget quality movies/series tailor made for their own taste.. I would also not expect the existing market leaders to be the leaders in the new world of AI-generated media..

@lukres I would say the opposite, especially for Netflix, they could generate movies/series way cheaper and they have a lot of data on what you like to watch. Warner Bros and Disney seem to big to fail, and have a lot of rights to successful franchises that they could continue to produce content with AI, plus they have live sports that will be hard to replace. I think the impact will be in smaller companies, and for sure on people working in the industry, not so much on the large companies.

@lukres my guess is 90-minute 1080p movies will cost ~$100 to generate in 2028, and will therefore be way outside of the budget of the average consumer. But I do imagine in the 2030s Netflix etc. will at least evolve massively.

More related questions