EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.
1,000People are also trading
https://youtu.be/rOyy9nNsbFc?si=uKlkeHA2YzDgGqDe
Does the film have to generated from a single prompt? This film was generated using many prompts and editing them together
~1 year ago, I predicted we would have to hit the following key milestones for a positive resolution by 2028
>Key milestones to look for:
2025: the first human-edited video >30min that is actually watchable
2026: the first low-quality fully-ai-generated movies
2027: AI generated movies proliferate across the internet. You cannot scroll youtube without encountering them (some of which have millions of views). Occasionally it takes you a minute or two to realize a movie is ai-generated.
2028: This market resolves positive (idk, certainly I am a buy at 43%, probably not a buy at 90% though).
I think it's worth noting that we have not hit the first milestone "first human-edited video >30 min that is actually watchable" This is the first ~10 minute AI generated video 'worth watching' I have personally seen.
That is to say, I would not buy this market at the current price level of 40%, and we will need at least one "breakthough" between now and 2028 for a positive resolution.
OpenAI comes for Hollywood with Critterz, an AI-powered animated film | The Verge https://share.google/S5coF8rsPnj2quXaO
@Dulaman That is not close to satisfying this market, and by the time it comes out we will be about 18 months from this market settling NO.
@LoganZoellner I think this is more like Neuralink, which was supposed to release a product for treating brain injuries in 2021
@LoganZoellner You forgot the part of Elon promises where you have to roll a D20 and see if you get a critical hit to find out if it happens at all
@JimHays
Metaculus used to have a site where they tracked every single prediction Elon made and the median was that things took 2x as long as he predicted. But, yeah, there have certainly been outliers (fully-autonomous Tesla self-driving being a particularly painful one for me personally).
I'm really sad that they took it down, because I think there might be a Hofstadters's Law effect going on where once "Elon Time" became a known thing he started making much more aggressive predictions such that you now have to 2x the 2x.
Relevant to whether someone will try to build it: https://www.screendaily.com/news/netflix-releases-guidelines-for-using-generative-ai-in-productions/5208200.article
@JonasVollmer my guess is Netflix don’t actually care if people use it if it were providing real value to them, they just don’t want to be seen as welcoming it - to protect their own industry and avoid any union, copyright, PR, data, or other issues.
Tbh it probably also benefits them to be publicly anti-AI because no doubt if an AI movie generator exists they will go down kicking and screaming with copyright complaints etc.
If this resolves YES I’d bet Netflix sue an AI company within 2 years of resolution. That markets probably too specific to be worth making, but if someone can come up with a better one that captures the idea, I’d bet
@Gen I disagree; Hollywood hates AI and anyone using it in ways not endorsed by major players like Netflix is damaging their reputation and career. Of course, it might still happen despite that, but I do think this will delay things
@Dulaman It will be able to do everything -- same as all not-yet-available models for the past three years