I sold my NO, as hilarious as this sounds I saw a comment below about "gone with the wind but with pikachu" and am now thinking its way more likely this resolves YES because people will be very clever at finding lots of things like that.

"One of the things that I am confident will exist in about two years is a Sora 2 style model that can run on a MacBook without copyright, personal opt-in, or other safety filters."

https://www.interconnects.ai/p/thoughts-on-the-curve

@ersatz

I would probably run incredibly slow on a MacBook, but Ovi is already an open-source audio+video model.

One interesting thing to think about is that nobody has yet come close to generating a "pretty good" novella either (ie, one that anyone actually wants to read). It requires a similar level of narrative sophistication and consistency, but it's way cheaper and you don't have to worry about visual artifacts, etc.

I would expect it to happen at least ~6 months before the movie.

@n_t nice, so we can resolve this by mid '27

@n_t

>One interesting thing to think about is that nobody has yet come close to generating a "pretty good" novella either (ie, one that anyone actually wants to read).

given the number of ai-generated novels on amazon, someone must be reading them. My personal experience is that the best AI models are somewhat above the level of writing the worst fanfic writers. Certainly it is possible for an AI to write a better screenplay than say Avatar 2 or SW Ep IX.

@n_t It should be obvious that you have no way of knowing this. Similar to AI generated images where people saw crappy ones and thought it was the SOTA, not realizing that some of those 'real' photos they were comparing to were actually AI generated.

@jim

Who wants to make a market for that Musk tweet? (Can we automate that process, so every Musk prediction gets a market?)

@jim lol at quoting Elon Musk predictions. Still waiting for my full fleet of robotaxis in 2020

@pietrokc we quote them but we don't update on them

Just as a vaguely relevant note, this seems to be the first time I personally have seen what seems to be an AI generated trailer for a (fake?) movie.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DLnXqO0R2p4/?igsh=MXh4NGV3am82M2MzeA==

@Yakushi12345 huh, honestly if that was all AI gen, that’s fairly impressive. Though I suspect a couple/few clips, some of the dialogue (via prompt) and the overall concept, are of human origin.

Still too short per clip and not enough continuity across the trailer to likely scale up far enough by resolution, but a little less hopeless than most of what we’ve seen.

I would take more real-money (i.e. NVDA or QQQ or VTI) action from NO holders but I feel morally conflicted.

Are they "doomers" who think AGI implies human extinction? So they think that in the cases where they'd lose they'd be dead anyway, so it's effectively a freeroll for them?

Can an expert in morality tell me whether it's moral to take money from people who believe this, if I am confident that they're wrong about it?

@jim

Could be a form of insurance. I get to spend the money now, I might have to pay it back later but at least the world didn't end.

Especially true if the outcome of AI is extremely binary (50/50 we all die or we all get infinite money) or if they plan to spend the money to do something that reduces p(doom).

@jim id be interested if it were legal here. I don’t think AI’s going to kill us, just that nobody will be able to make a high quality movie from a single prompt within 3 years

Would have to be cash equivalent though, nothing like the nvidia units used below. It makes it needlessly complicated if nvidia hits $10k per share and now the bet settlement requires the nvidia price today plus the taxes on the cap gains

@Gen tax implications 💀

@Gen at least in NZ you don't have to pay tax on long-held stocks tho

@jim I dont see why this question would habe different moral qualities then other things you might bet on. So if you dont think people should bet money on prediction markets fair enough.

Also I have a no position based largely on my reading of the question as being about a normal prompt not "can we enter a book length document into sora5"

DM me if you want to make a >$10k bet on this (denominated either in cash or some other asset like NVDA); I'd bet NO at a 40% probability. (Smaller amounts aren't really worth bothering with.)

How people thought 5 years ago:

Is this how NO holders will be looked back upon in early 2028?

@jim wouldn't it be 5 years ago? The comments were 3 years old when the screenshots were taken 2 years ago

@Wott yeah I was just realising the same thing, here's the agedlikemilk post:
https://www.reddit.com/r/agedlikemilk/comments/1at7rjo/photorealistic_videos_from_a_few_sentences_is/

@jim Maybe! Or maybe YES holders will be looked back upon as we now look back at people who declared GPT 3.5 was AGI, then 4, then o1, then o3, ...