Russia

A selection of Russia-related questions. For more on the war, see also the Ukraine 2024 dashboard. Message me to point out any good questions that are missing. I might also subsidize Russia questions which seem both important and neglected.

2024 Russian presidential election - Wikipedia
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Will Vladimir Putin win Russia's 2024 presidential election with 80% or more of the vote?YES
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Will Vladimir Putin win Russia's 2024 presidential election with 70% or more of the vote?YES
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Russian presidential election 2024 outcome (resolves proportionally to votes)
87%87%
Владимир Путин (Vladimir Putin)
4%5%
Николай Харитонов (Nikolay Kharitonov)
4%4%
Владислав Даванков (Vladislav Davankov)
3%3%
Леонид Слуцкий (Leonid Slutsky)
See 5 more answers
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Who will take the second place on 2024 Russian president election?
100%33%
Nikolay Kharitonov
0.3%
Pavel Grudinin
0.4%
Zakhar Prilepin
0.4%
Sergey Mironov
See 5 more answers
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Will Boris Nadezhdin be a candidate in Russia's 2024 presidential election?NO
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Who will win the next Russian presidential election?
100%99.8%
Vladimir Putin, who will win with 80% or more of the votes cast
0.2%
Vladimir Putin, who will win with less than 80% of the votes cast
0.0%
Someone else
0.0%
No election will be held before 1 June 2024
Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia
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Will there be peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?8% chance
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Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?69% chance
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[ACX 2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?3% chance
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Will the Ukraine war end by 2025?1% chance
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Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2024?13% chance
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Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in the first half of 2024?NO
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Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?66% chance
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Will Ukraine regain control of its pre-2014 territory (including Crimea and Donbas) by 2025?1% chance
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[ACX 2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?2% chance
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Will Vladimir Putin be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?64% chance

The long term

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Who will be the next President of Russia, after Vladimir Putin? (fixed)
50%
Other
11%
Nikolai Patrushev
7%
Mikhail Mishustin
5%
Sergey Sobyanin
See 9 more answers
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Premium
How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?
3%
No Ukraine anymore
1.5%
No Russia anymore
10%
Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine
5%
Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more
See 2 more answers
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Will Putin be President or Prime Minister of Russia when he dies?82% chance
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Ramzan Kadyrov dies before Putin65% chance

Internal politics and stability

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