Israel Ceasefire

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Premium
Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal before Trump’s inauguration?74% chance
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When will the hostilities in Gaza end?
48%
Jan 2025 or earlier
66%
Feb 2025 or earlier
76%
Mar 2025 or earlier
77%
April 2025 or earlier
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What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Harris Elected
97%
Trump Re-elected
3%
Israel/Hamas Ceasefire
0.3%
Harris Elected
0.1%
Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire
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When will Gaza have a ceasefire? (before end of which month?) [Israel Hamas Conflict]
0.2%
Before the end of Dec 2024
78%
Before the end of Jun 2025
88%
Before the end of Dec 2025
94%
Before the end of Jun 2026
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Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?34% chance
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Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?75% chance
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[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?14% chance
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Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?20% chance
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