Ukraine 2024

Territorial Control After the War:

After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?

93%

Kyiv (oblast)

89%

Chernihiv

86%

Sumy

76%

Odessa

See 7 more answers

Plus

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

3%

No Ukraine anymore

0.6%

No Russia anymore

10%

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

6%

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

See 2 more answers

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?24% chance

At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didnt control at the start?29% chance

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?62% chance

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war53% chance

Territorial Control in 2024:

Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?4% chance

Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2024?3% chance

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?5% chance

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2024?24% chance

Mini

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in Q1 2024?NO

Will Russia take more territory than what Ukraine will regain between beginning and EOY 202486% chance

Control of Ukrainian Cities:

[ACX 2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?6% chance

Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?17% chance

Will Kharkiv or Zaporizhia or Kherson fall before EOY 2024?8% chance

Ukraine Aid:

Will Congress pass a new Ukraine aid package by the end of March 2024?NO

Will U.S. security assistance to Ukraine drop by more than 50% in FY2024?25% chance

Will the US start using frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraines military?91% chance

Will I donate to Mriya at least 100,000 by the end of 2024?72% chance

Ukraine's NATO and EU Ambitions:

Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?24% chance

Weapons in Ukraine:

Ukrainian Presidency:

Russian Leadership and Ukraine:

The End of the War: