Ukraine 2024

Territorial Control After the War:

➕
Plus
After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?
95%
Kyiv (oblast)
94%
Chernihiv
86%
Odessa
83%
Sumy
See 7 more answers
💎
Premium
How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?
3%
No Ukraine anymore
1.5%
No Russia anymore
10%
Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine
5%
Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more
See 2 more answers
➕
Plus
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?14% chance
➕
Plus
At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?23% chance
➕
Plus
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?66% chance
➕
Plus
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war56% chance

Territorial Control in 2024:

➕
Plus
Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?3% chance
➕
Plus
Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2024?5% chance
➕
Plus
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?1% chance
➕
Plus
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2024?11% chance
Basic
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in Q1 2024?NO
➕
Plus
Will Russia take more territory than what Ukraine will regain between beginning and EOY 202476% chance

Control of Ukrainian Cities:

➕
Plus
[ACX 2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?2% chance
➕
Plus
Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?21% chance
➕
Plus
Will Kharkiv or Zaporizhia or Kherson fall before EOY 2024?8% chance

Ukraine Aid:

➕
Plus
Will Congress pass a new Ukraine aid package by the end of March 2024?NO
➕
Plus
Will U.S. security assistance to Ukraine drop by more than 50% in FY2024?20% chance
➕
Plus
Will the US start using frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine’s military?61% chance
➕
Plus
Will I donate to Mriya at least Ṁ100,000 by the end of 2024?28% chance

Ukraine's NATO and EU Ambitions:

➕
Plus
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?26% chance

Weapons in Ukraine:

Ukrainian Presidency:

Russian Leadership and Ukraine:

The End of the War:

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules