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Ukraine 2024

Territorial Control After the War:

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After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?
90%
Kyiv (oblast)
72%
Chernihiv
70%
Odessa
63%
Sumy
See 7 more answers
#Ukraine
#Ukraine-Russia war
#Subsidy Spotlight
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How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?
4%
No Ukraine anymore
2%
No Russia anymore
12%
Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine
6%
Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more
See 2 more answers
#Ukraine
#Ukraine-Russia war
#Russia
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Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?22% chance
#Ukraine-Russia war
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At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?30% chance
#Wars
#Ukraine
#How It Ends
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Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?73% chance
#Ukraine-Russia war
#Ukraine
#Wars
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Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war64% chance

Territorial Control in 2024:

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Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?5% chance
#Ukraine-Russia war
#Russia
#Ukraine
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Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2024?3% chance
#Ukraine-Russia war
#Ukraine
#Russia
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Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?3% chance
#Ukraine
#Ukraine-Russia war
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Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2024?35% chance
#Wars
#Ukraine
#Russia
resolved
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in Q1 2024?NO
#Ukraine
#Wars
#Russia
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Will Russia take more territory than what Ukraine will regain between beginning and EOY 202487% chance
#Wars
#Russia
#Ukraine-Russia war

Control of Ukrainian Cities:

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[ACX 2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?5% chance
#ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#Metaculus
#Ukraine-Russia war
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Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?16% chance
#Ukraine-Russia war
#Ukraine
#Russia
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Will Kharkiv or Zaporizhia or Kherson fall before EOY 2024?16% chance
#Russia
#Ukraine-Russia war
#World

Ukraine Aid:

resolved
Will Congress pass a new Ukraine aid package by the end of March 2024?NO
#Ukraine-Russia war
#Ukraine
#Wars
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Will U.S. security assistance to Ukraine drop by more than 50% in FY2024?36% chance
#Wars
#Ukraine-Russia war
#Ukraine
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Will the US start using frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine’s military?91% chance
#Ukraine-Russia war
#Ukraine
#Global Macro
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Will I donate to Mriya at least Ṁ100,000 by the end of 2024?72% chance
#Personal
#Charity
#Manifold for Charity

Ukraine's NATO and EU Ambitions:

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Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?27% chance
#Ukraine-Russia war
#World
#Politics

Weapons in Ukraine:

Ukrainian Presidency:

Russian Leadership and Ukraine:

The End of the War: