Ukraine 2024

Territorial Control After the War:

Ṁ5.9k
After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?
91%
Kyiv (oblast)
91%
Chernihiv
90%
Mykolaiv
90%
Odessa
See 7 more answers
Ṁ10k
How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?
0.8%
No Ukraine anymore
0.7%
No Russia anymore
8%
Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine
1.4%
Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more
See 2 more answers
Ṁ2.3k
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
23% chance
Ṁ2.3k
At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?
14% chance
Ṁ1k
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?
60% chance
Ṁ1k
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
47% chance

Territorial Control in 2024:

Ṁ2.5k
Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?
NO
Ṁ1k
Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2024?
NO
Ṁ2.4k
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
NO
Ṁ1.4k
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2024?
NO
Ṁ935
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in Q1 2024?
NO
Ṁ1k
Will Russia take more territory than what Ukraine will regain between beginning and EOY 2024
YES

Control of Ukrainian Cities:

Ṁ1.1k
[ACX 2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
NO
Ṁ1k
Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?
3% chance
Ṁ1k
Will Kharkiv or Zaporizhia or Kherson fall before EOY 2024?
NO

Ukraine Aid:

Ṁ1.4k
Will Congress pass a new Ukraine aid package by the end of March 2024?
NO
Ṁ1.3k
Will U.S. security assistance to Ukraine drop by more than 50% in FY2024?
N/A
Ṁ1k
Will the US start using frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine’s military?
NO
Ṁ1.3k
Will I donate to Mriya at least Ṁ100,000 by the end of 2024?
NO

Ukraine's NATO and EU Ambitions:

Ṁ1.8k
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?
16% chance

Weapons in Ukraine:

Ukrainian Presidency:

Russian Leadership and Ukraine:

The End of the War:

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