Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?
57
430
995
2040
74%
chance

Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time as a result of military action, before the conflict concludes with a peace deal or long-term armistice? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.

Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).

This explicitly excludes any negotiated or otherwise unforced territorial changes (e.g. if Russia voluntarily withdraws from Ukrainian territory).

The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases.

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Two brief comments. First, the original description said "includes" where it should have been "excludes" (about counting unforced territorial changes). Second, please note that the 2023 market quickly went into the 80% zone, where it stayed for most of the year just to decline again in the second half of the year. It might or might not be the same pattern this time...