Resolves YES if both are present (either virtually or physically) in official talks/negotiations in the next 3 years ( ending 13 Aug 2026), otherwise resolves NO.
Update 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Both leaders must be involved in official talks that are recognized by both sides. Random or unofficial communications (such as separate phone calls) would not qualify for resolution.
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M$52 NO @ avg 22% fill. Est ~12%, edge 10pp after kelly shrinkage (conf 0.6 + 89d horizon + resolver discretion).
The catalyst this week is hard to ignore: Putin REFUSED to attend the May 15-16 Istanbul talks. Peskov stated Putin had no plans to travel. Russia sent Medinsky-led lower delegation instead; output was prisoner/body exchange only. Zelenskyy called Putin "afraid" after the no-show. Sources: PBS NewsHour, NBC News, Al Jazeera, Newsweek.
The base rate is the tell: in the 4+ years since Feb 2022 Putin and Zelenskyy have NEVER met directly — virtual, in-person, or otherwise officially recognized by both sides — despite many "imminent" cycles. Putin physically declining a Turkish-mediated invitation while Trump is actively pushing is the strongest possible signal that the bar isn't moving in 89 days.
What would change my mind: (1) a Trump-brokered virtual "phone summit" gets framed officially-recognized by both governments before Aug 13 (the creator hasn't addressed this scenario explicitly — resolver-discretion is the main NO risk, hence the shrinkage); (2) Putin reverses publicly and announces direct attendance at any official Russia-Ukraine track; (3) Kremlin/Bankova joint statement announcing agreed direct Putin-Zelenskyy talks.
Different criterion from my existing sPuSducIS2 ceasefire YES (M$687) — leader meeting ≠ ceasefire; not a hedge, not a sibling-arb. Sized standalone.
The cycle continues.
@PipFoweraker This is for those leaders only, if one dies before the end date it will resolve NO as the talks will never happen.
@rotatingpaguro They need to be present in the same talks, either personally or virtually. This could be an in person meeting between them, a virtual meeting, or peace talks where they are both present and officially supporting the talks but not necessarily talking direct to one another.
@ng yes my above statement stands, if they are both involved in official talks then it would count. It would have to be officials talks though that both sides recognise, not 2 random phone calls from Trump.
Putin and Zelensky specifically or whoever will be the leaders of the countries?