US Govt Shutdown

How long will the 2023 US Government Shutdown last?

100%99.8%

No 2023 US Government Shutdown

0.0%

1 day

0.0%

2-6 days

0.1%

7-13 days

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Next US government shutdown

0.5%

2023

19%

2024

30%

2025

8%

2026

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Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2023?NO

Will there be a US government shutdown this month (November 17 deadline)?NO

Will the U.S. government experience a shutdown while the current speaker of the house (Mike Johnson) is in the position?36% chance

#118th Congress

Will there be a government shutdown after Nov. 17 that lasts longer than any other shutdown in U.S. history?NO

US Government Shutdown Before 2024 (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?N/A

#Conditional markets

US Government Shutdown Before 2024 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?51% chance

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

Federal government begins initial communications to agencies on possible shutdown | CNN Politics

The White House Office of Management and Budget on Thursday began its initial communications to agencies on how to prepare for a possible government shutdown, a source familiar with the plans said, as lawmakers on Capitol Hill have yet to settle on a plan to avoid a shutdown by November 17.

Will the House and Senate have passed a CR (to avoid a shutdown) by 7:00pm on November 17th?YES

Will more House Democrats or Republicans vote for a CR to avoid government shutdown?

100%99.2%

CR passes with more Democratic votes

0.7%

CR passes with more Republican votes

0.1%

No CR passes by November 17 (end of day ET)