Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before January 1, 2025? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.
Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).
The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases. There are quite a few discussions on individual cases in the comments of previous markets.
See also:
Related questions
Created a market specifically for Kharkiv in response to news about russia preparing to take over the city: https://manifold.markets/SlipperySloe/what-will-happen-to-kharkiv-in-2024?r=U2xpcHBlcnlTbG9l
@cowgoesmoo If the war ends without any major changes in territory, this resolves no. If there are major developments, this is resolves yes immediately (well, as soon as the changes and their scale are confirmed beyond doubt).
@PS What if the order goes:
1. There is no major change in territory due to military operations
2. The war ends with a treaty
3. The treaty involves major changes in territory compared to the current front lines, e.g. Russia gives up some of Kherson oblast to get more of Donetsk oblast.
In that case, would this resolve yes?
@PS Would you mind making a market just for Q1 of 2024? Since this is trading so high, near 70%, it might be worth it to have ones with shorter time frames. I’m happy to make one if you don’t want to.