Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before January 1, 2025? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.

Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).

The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases. There are quite a few discussions on individual cases in the comments of previous markets.

UPDATE: The explanation for the resolution is in the comments.

See also:

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The territory changes will be compared to the situation at the start of 2024. The advance near Pokrovsk is confirmed to not qualify as it does not constitute major territorial gains or capture of significant cities/objects.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

• A territorial gain of around 12,000 km² (like the Kharkiv counteroffensive) would qualify as significant

• Capturing 1/3 of a region would qualify as a major territorial gain

• Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Territorial changes are measured against the status at the start of 2024.

  • A significant change requires either:

  • A territorial gain of approximately 12,000 km², similar to the Kharkiv counteroffensive.

  • Capturing one-third of a region.

  • Capturing individual towns does not qualify unless they are of major importance, such as Kherson or Zaporizhzhia.