Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2024?
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1.3K
2025
41%
chance

Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before January 1, 2025? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.

Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).

The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases. There are quite a few discussions on individual cases in the comments of previous markets.

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What if the war ends?

@cowgoesmoo If the war ends without any major changes in territory, this resolves no. If there are major developments, this is resolves yes immediately (well, as soon as the changes and their scale are confirmed beyond doubt).

@PS What if the order goes:
1. There is no major change in territory due to military operations
2. The war ends with a treaty
3. The treaty involves major changes in territory compared to the current front lines, e.g. Russia gives up some of Kherson oblast to get more of Donetsk oblast.

In that case, would this resolve yes?

@PeterFavaloro No, negotiated changes in territory don't count

bought Ṁ101 of YES

holders of NO may be interested in arbitraging this market for only the first half of 2024

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@PS Would you mind making a market just for Q1 of 2024? Since this is trading so high, near 70%, it might be worth it to have ones with shorter time frames. I’m happy to make one if you don’t want to.

@KLiamSmith Sure, here you are:

predicts NO

It seems many of y'all expect changes, do folks who think this will be yes expect Russian territorial gains or Ukrainian ones?

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