Will there be peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?
153
47k
Dec 31
25%
chance

For the purposes of this market, I won't count:

  • Negotiations where one of the parties is not present (such as the Saudi talks)

  • Negotiations about matters not including a permanent peace settlement (such as the grain deal or an armistice)

  • Negotiations conducted through intermediaries/backchannels (e.g. oligarchs or other third parties)

  • An announcement of peace talks without them actually taking place

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@mint That's not news - Russia has been consistent about that from the start, and Putin says it every other day. However, those realities include Ukraine accepting everything Russia wants, from acknowledgement of its territorial gains to regime and policy changes.

predicts YES

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-25/russia-ukraine-putin-signals-interest-in-discussing-end-to-war

There are definitely some feelers going out now from Moscow. Ukraine is having increasing problems recruiting people and their offensive didn’t go anywhere. Both EU and the US are balking on extending Ukraine more aid. It’s pretty clear the war is a stalemate.

The two parties are very far apart but it’s not clear what they gain with the status quo. It’s also not clear what would push the principals (Zelensky and Putin) to talk. Each is currently more popular because of the war but there are increasing grumblings from Ukrainians. It’s hard to tell what is going on in Russia.

There is a Ukranian election scheduled in 2024 as well, which could shake things up. It’s not clear if this is going to be held.

@JimAusman I think it's been pretty clear for a while that there will be no elections in Ukraine in the foreseeable future.

As for putting out feelers for peace, I think it's the second such report within the last few months, which might or might not indicate there's something real behind it. The Kremlin has denied any such approaches

The price of this market doesn't make any sense. It seems like it wants to be around 50%+ but it has been bid down repeatedly by one person: 42irrationalist, the only significant NO holder. Unless they are someone with with decision making abilities in Russia, the price is crazy.

This market is priced like peace actually has to be achieved... but all that has to happen is they talk. It's true that right now Russia has not agreed to participate in the Swiss talks, but that could change at any moment, and what about the entire rest of the year?

The market about China specifically mediating peace talks is higher than this one! https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-china-convene-and-mediate-peac-4c96ada79518

And a market that is worded nearly the same as this one (and ends at the same time) is at 74%! Presumably because 42irrationalist doesn't know about it yet: https://manifold.markets/Bruce54df/will-russia-and-ukraine-enter-into-4d367b21348e

predicts NO

@mint 42irrationalist is the #1 ranked Ukraine-Russia trader on the leaderboard so you should probably weight his opinion heavily

predicts YES

@SemioticRivalry It's hard to weigh it that heavily when he apparently doesn't know about an identical market trading 50% higher.

predicts NO

@mint weight his opinion heavily on Russia Ukraine affairs, not on whether other markets exist which I have no reason to think that he has excellent knowledge on

predicts YES

@SemioticRivalry that makes sense. I wasn't aware of his leader board position, but I did see he traded in the 2023 version of this market. I guess we'll see who's right in the end, but even if peace talks don't happen in 2024, I think 11.5 months is enough time for this to reach 60%+ on rumors alone.

@SemioticRivalry How do you see someone's performance on a specific topic?

@mint While I'm not trading on this market, for what it's worth, I think 50% is too high a probability.

Russia was not invited to the Swiss talks, the same way it wasn't invited to the previous four meetings of the same format. Ukraine has a law banning peace talks with Putin, and Russia has consistently said that it's happy to talk about peace if this means Ukraine surrenders. While a year is a long time indeed, at the moment I don't see the prerequisites for real peace talks.

predicts NO

@mint click a given topic/tag and it should bring up a list of markets, from there go to leaderboards

@SemioticRivalry Leaderboards were hidden in a menu for me - thanks a lot for pointing them out!

predicts NO

@SemioticRivalry Thanks for pointing out the leaderboards to me as well! I didn't even realize I am the top trader on the Russia/Ukraine war market.

The price of this market doesn't make any sense. It seems like it wants to be around 50%+ but it has been bid down repeatedly by one person: 42irrationalist, the only significant NO holder

I'm providing free mana for you and you complain? :) I'm happy when people bet in the opposite direction of me — more mana for me.

I think 11.5 months is enough time for this to reach 60%+ on rumors alone.

What's your model of this? Why would they talk at all? What's a realistic way for them to achieve any agreement? Why haven't the peace talks happen before?

I'm with @PS on reasoning.

  1. Ukraine has a law banning talks with Putin.

  2. Even if they manage to work around the law, it's not clear that Ukrainian society would accept having peace talks with Putin.

  3. Even if Ukrainian society accepts the idea of talks themselves, it's not clear if they are going to accept losing the territories.

  4. Russia is not going to accept anything less than a status-quo and give up currently held territories.

  5. A common narrative in Ukrainian society is that a ceasefire / peace talks would merely a way for Putin to build a bigger military and attack a few years later. This might be correct and requires guarantees from big powers.

How do you imagine the talks going? "Russia: we'd like to keep the territories. Ukraine: Yeah, no, thanks".


On top of this there is a whole lot of weird incentives for Zelensky himself: currently he can remain in power indefinitely (the presidential election is delayed/suspended) and ending the war would mean running the election now.

I'd say the chance of peace talks is at most 10-15% now, probably lower.

PS: You can read about my strategy here. You can also get an investment from Marcus if you think you have a trading strategy.

@42irrationalist

How do you imagine the talks going? "Russia: we'd like to keep the territories. Ukraine: Yeah, no, thanks".

Yes actually, pretty much like that. The question only says there has to be peace talks, there is nothing about the outcome of the peace talks. That's exactly what I'm referring to when I say "rumors", a report speculating they may engage in peace talks soon. My strategy on this market is that it's likely with global sentiment about supporting Ukraine drying up (unfortunately), Ukraine will be pressured to talk to Russia. I still think the outcome of those talks won't go anywhere though, but it would be to reassure the West that peace is an option. Another possible catalyst: if the 2024 election is not won by Biden or even if polls get worse, or if Congress still can't pass an aid package.

Ukraine has a law banning talks with Putin

Also true, but I don't see how this is relevant to the market. According to the rules of this market, Putin or even Zelensky don't need to be involved with the negotiations. It could he as simple as a meeting of two foreign relations secretaries to discuss peace.

predicts NO

Another possible catalyst: if the 2024 election is not won by Biden or even if polls get worse, or if Congress still can't pass an aid package.

It's a possibility, but Trump (or whoever wins the election in this scenario) won't be inaugurated before 2025.

My strategy on this market is that it's likely with global sentiment about supporting Ukraine drying up (unfortunately), Ukraine will be pressured to talk to Russia

That's a real possibility, but I think it'd take more than one year for it to happen: there is a lot of inertia in how governments operate. So far Ukraine has been getting support for almost 2 years.

Yes actually, pretty much like that.

Ok, but if you personally realize the futility, why wouldn't governments supporting Ukrainian government realize this? Why pressure Ukraine into a scenario with no possibility of achieving any real peace?

I think the scenario for peace talks is something like support for Ukraine slowly drying up + NATO governments not wanting to further weaken Russian military (how much of a threat they see it now is unclear to me right now) + Ukrainian society getting used to the realities of the situation (e.g. resisting another mobilization). Trump getting inaugurated in 2025 or Ukraine failing another counter-offensive in 2025 (if they are planning it) increases the chances of it. But most of my probability distribution of peace talks is currently on 2025 and onward, spread over several years. Though the spread reflects my own uncertainty in what happens in 2025+ rather than any detailed model over the future years.

predicts NO

Well, that escalated quickly.

No.

Not soon

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