Will Vladimir Putin win Russia's 2024 presidential election with 80% or more of the vote?
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Russia is set to hold a presidential election on 17 March 2024. According to Wikipedia, Vladimir Putin's share of the vote in previous elections were as follows:

  • 2018: 77.53%

  • 2012: 64.35%

  • 2008: N/A (Putin was Vice President; his ally, Dmitry Medvedev ran for President; Medvedev received 71.25% of the vote)

  • 2004: 71.91%

  • 2000: 53.44%

Will Putin's share of the vote in the 2024 election be 80% or more, as recorded on Wikipedia's election page?

In the unlikely event of a second round of voting, the second round's percentage will be used.

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Putin received 88.48% of the vote in Russia's 2024 election, which greater than 70%. Resolved YES.

How is anyone going to accurately report this? Elections in Russia are totally farcical. Wikipedia will report what Russia says but that won't make it true lol. Polling statistics will only reflect people's desire to not have their fingers cut off or be fired from their jobs.

@Lorelai some value will be reported. This market asks about that value.

@BrunoParga that value will be a lie though hahah

@Lorelai smart people will use it to infer things about what's going on in Russian politics, though. I mean, surely you can see that it's very different if the Kremlin says it won 50.5% of the vote, or 89%, or 100%, right? You see that, don't you?

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@Lorelai

> that value will be a lie though hahah
Well, that's why I feel so confident about betting this market up

@BrunoParga I see that they might self report different figures, obviously. None of which can be trusted.

@Lorelai bless your heart.

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@Lorelai nobody trusts the value, it is out of scope of predictions. It is just a game to Guess tha value.

@KongoLandwalker and it is also not irrelevant which value they'll claim. If they say they won by 51%, they're admitting that nearly half of the country doesn't want Putin. That'd be a signal for the opposition to organize harder, which might result in an overthrow of the regime.

If they feel like they can get away with saying Putin got 92% of the vote, that shows a very, very different story: they don't care about putting on a façade anymore. That sends a much more discouraging message to the opposition, if they feel they can send it.

This is what I meant when I told the other commenter that "smart people will use [the percentage] to infer things about what's going on in Russian politics".

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