A presidential election is planned in Russia for 15-17 March 2024.
Boris Nadezhdin intends to run for president. He openly opposes the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Elections in Russia aren't free and fair. Opposition to the invasion is repressed.
I will resolve yes if he's admitted as a presidential candidate, i. e. if he's present in the ballot papers. I will resolve NO otherwise. I might resolve NO early if he's officially barred, dies, etc.
I will resolve N/A if the presidential elections aren't held (e. g. if they are cancelled, postponed, Russia ceases to exist, the post of the president of Russia ceases to exist, etc.)
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The central electoral comission barred Nadezhdin, but I'm not resolving NO yet. I'll wait for the elections, and resolve N/A is the elections are cancelled / postponed etc.
@wadimiusz Also, he said he'll file an appeal against the decision in court, so in theory, that's not final yet (well, not against the decision itself, apparently, but rather against the electoral legislation the decision is based on).
Boris Nadezhdin has collected enough signatures and handled them over today to election officials: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68151965
@DavidS Unfortunately, that doesn't mean much. So did Duntsova before him (in the first stage) https://apnews.com/article/russia-election-putin-duntsova-d5c20ed0fc0bd9f07e71159284892d72
@PS thanks. Let's hope all the commas are correct and no spelling errors, although I gather, they will likely find another excuse.
@DavidS The electoral commission declared 15% of signatures to be invalid (the allowed maximum is 5%). Nadezhdin wants to dispute the finding, and to complain to the Supreme Court if unsuccessful.
Meduza reports (in Russian) on obstructions to the signature gathering and quotes a source "close to the Kremlin" as saying there will definitely be no anti-war candidates.
@PS While I do trust Meduza, Nadezhdin (unlike Duntsova) has a Kremlin history, and I continuously believe he is a plant (or at least a "fall guy" to prove existence of liberalism)
@avern That might be the case, and Meduza's sources might be wrong. But even if it was indicated to him by the Kremlin last year that he could/should run (as the Meduza article also claims), it does make sense that the near-universal endorsement by the opposition and sudden surge in Nadezhdin's grassroots popularity would frighten the Presidential Administration enough to keep him off the ballot.
Seems like arbitrage bots are not set up: https://manifold.markets/AlekseiBelostotskii/who-will-be-registered-as-candidate has 36% prob, the same with my election results market.
@avern Sobchak was needed to dilute votes for other democrat candidates in 2018 election. There are no other democrat candidates in this election, there's absolutely no need for a "plant".
@BairAiushin Russian internal politics are complicated. Internal unrest in bigger metropolitan areas (Moscow, SPB) is starting to show. Unlike China, Russian government still has to "appear" democratic internally for its people, and both Duntsova and Nadezhdin being denied slots will cause protests.
Additionally, having Nadezhdin on the ballot will allow them to passively "collect" information on who could be anti-regime, creating a blacklist.
Not very pretty but it would make sense for them to allow him. He won't win, and by showing his voters as a measly percent of Russia, it will further reinforce the position of UR, Putin, and Russian Conservatism in the way of "see, they didnt even get one percent".
and by showing his voters as a measly percent of Russia, it will further reinforce the position
Honestly I don't think the PR effect would be worth the risk there. You say denying both anti-war candidates would cause protests, but I'm pretty sure letting him run now and then denying his votes would cause considerably more. He's rallying! He's now a natural focal point for perfectly legal anti-war "protest"; an opportunity to concentrate the previously-diffuse frustration. The later he's stopped, the more momentum there'll be, and that's Not good for the powers-that-be.
(Tbf I wouldn't be at all surprised if he was ~kremlin-approved when he was registering. He's not looking very kremlin-aligned now.)
@mxxun Okay thats actually fair, particularly that last bit. The popularity he gained is concerning.