takeoff.watch forecast: 75%. Putin, 74, still rejects a freeze unless Ukraine gives up the Donbas, and crowd forecasts of a ceasefire have been too optimistic for two years. Weighing a likely ceasefire within a few years against his yearly risk of death, removal or handover gives about 75%, a little below the market.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

extended 6mos

Would something like Minsk II in 2015 count as a conclusion for this? My understanding is there were violations and a continual low level conflict after but it is a notably downgrade of the active conflict from what came before.

@Garzahd yes, it would.

Related:
https://manifold.markets/AlexandreK/will-vladimir-putin-stop-being-pres

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

35% chance. This question resolves to yes if Putin is no longer president of Russia while Zelensky is still president of Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, the reason for either president to no longer be president is irrelevant: lost election, death, destitution, coup d'état, anything counts. If Putin becomes prime minister while someone else assumes the presidency, Putin will no longer be considered president, even if there is broad agreement that the official president is no more than a figurehead. Ditto for Zelensky. For the purposes of this question, in the event that either president would lose de facto control over the capital of his country, he would no longer be considered president, regardless of the de jure situation, even if he retreats to some other place and maintains a government in exile of any sort. It's a bit arbitrary, but I think it makes things easier to resolve, as consitutional issues of this type can become very tricky to resolve objectively. The question resolves as soon as either man is no longer president. If for some reason it happens at exactly the same time for both of them, it resolves as N/A.

The most probable conclusion is his death. He will not stop, he is just gambling.

What would be a "conclusion"? Does it have to be a formal peace treaty? An armistice? A frozen conflict?

@PS Thinking about it, if it becomes like S and N Korea, Putin will die before 'the conclusion'.

@PS A peace treaty or an armistice would definitely count, as would a long-term ceasefire as in the Korean War. Obviously it would take a while to be sure that a frozen conflict really was "frozen" but I would consider the Korean War concluded!

@njmkw As late as 2010 there were still casualties though https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong

Will Vladimir Putin be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition