Trump Jan 6th Trial

The charges facing Trump in the Jan. 6 investigation, explained

Trump was charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States, witness tampering, conspiracy against the rights of citizens, and obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding.

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Will Trump win the US election if he has been convicted of a crime in his January 6th Federal Trial? [10k Subsidy]48% chance

Will Trump be Convicted, if his January 6th Trial begins before the election?

47%

UNRESOLVED: Trial begun and ongoing, hung jury and new trial, etc through November 5th

39%

GUILTY: Convicted / Guilty Plea / etc before November 5th

11%

Other

NOT GUILTY: Acquitted / Charged Dropped / etc before November 5th

Will SCOTUS grant President Trump's request to halt a ruling against his presidential immunity claims, before March?

100%75%Other

SCOTUS grants Trump's requested stay before March 1st

SCOTUS denies Trump's requested stay before March 1st

12%

SCOTUS announces no decision on Trump's requested stay before March 1st

Just Security

How Long Will Trump’s Immunity Appeal Take? Analyzing the Alternative Timelines

Likely trial start dates for former president Trump in DC, now that the Circuit Court has ruled and the Supreme Court has yet to weigh in.

[Metaculus] Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald ...of presidential immunity?YES

Trump's Federal Case about January 6th election interference will be rescheduled to begin in what month?

66%

No new trial date announced before 2025

July

August

June

See 9 more answers

Will Trump be convicted of a Felony before the presidential election, and will he win the election?

58%

Yes/Yes: Trump will be convicted of a felony before the election, and will win the election

42%

Yes/No: Trump will be convicted of a felony before the election, and will not win the election

0.5%

No/Yes: Trump will not be convicted of a felony before the election, and will win the election

0.2%

No/No: Trump will not be convicted of a felony before the election, and will not win the election

Will Trump be convicted in federal court on any charge before the 2024 general election?5% chance

On which charges will Donald Trump be convicted in the January 6th Federal Case?

31%

Conspiracy to defraud the United States

28%

Conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding

28%

Obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding

13%

Conspiracy against rights

Federal prosecution of Donald Trump (election obstruction case) - Wikipedia

Will Trumps January 6 trial have a verdict before Election Day?9% chance

Will Mark Meadows testify that Trump knew he lost the election on January 6th?75% chance

Will the January 6th Case against Trump have a mistrial/hung jury before election day?12% chance

Just a moment...

Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? [ACX 2024]YES

Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime by the end of 2024?YES

Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime before the 2024 election?YES

Will Donald Trump be convicted of any felony crime by Election Day?YES

Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime by Election Day?YES