Will Trump be Convicted, if his January 6th Trial begins before the election?
Nov 7
GUILTY: Convicted / Guilty Plea / etc before November 5th
UNRESOLVED: Trial begun and ongoing, hung jury and new trial, etc through November 5th
NOT GUILTY: Acquitted / Charged Dropped / etc before November 5th

This market is about the Federal Case against Trump, in which he is charged with interfering with the election certification on January 6th, 2021.

The trial was originally scheduled for March 4th, but was then postponed while trump appealed and claimed presidential immunity. Other markets currently expect that the trial will begin before the election.

If the trial does not begin before November 5th, this market resolves N/A and all Mana will be returned to traders. If the trial does begin before the election, this market resolves to one of these options:

  • GUILTY: The jury finds Trump guilty on at least one charge, or Trump pleads guilty on least one charge, before November 5th.

  • NOT GUILTY: The jury finds Trump not guilty on all charges, the charges are all dismissed/dropped, or the trial concludes in some other way without a conviction before November 5th.

  • UNRESOLVED: The trial begins before the election, but on November 5th is still unresolved with no conviction. This includes situations in which there is a mistrial, such as due to a hung jury, has not yet been retried. It also includes situations in which the trial begins but then is put on hold but is expected to continue.

  • Other: A catch-all for unforeseen legal situations which do not fall into the other three categories. This should be very unlikely, but the option is present for unknown unknowns.

[Disclaimer: These rules should be considered to be in Draft Form until this disclaimer has been edited out of the description. The exact resolution criteria may be updated to better reflect the spirit of the question with the correct legal terminology. Please leave a comment below if you have any suggestions.]

You can find more information on the January 6th case at the following pages:

Wikipedia Article

NYT Summary and Annotated Indictment

NPR Summary

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bought Ṁ20 Other YES

Does other include Death? (Mr. FBI this is not a threat >_> )

I think this is saying “if the case is resolved before Jan 5th, it is 5:1 likely to be resolved against Trump”

Edit: sorry, this was intended as a reply to @Joshua ’s comment.

@Santiago Yes, that's a better way of putting it. I'm curious what exactly everyone has in mind buying "Unresolved" up so high. The best analysis I've found is this article by Just Security which gives these potential trial end dates:

What I've read elsewhere agrees that Jack Smith thinks he can try the case over just a few weeks, and so in my opinion if the trial starts before the election it's very likely to conclude before the election.

Even if there's a hung jury, there are sure to be alternate jurors. How else are people thinking the case might take so long?

@Joshua Reliance interests

This seems very optimistic about the legal system

Do juries have to be unanimous in criminal cases?

When it is time to count votes, it is the presiding juror's duty to see that this is done properly. In a civil case, the judge will tell you how many jurors must agree in order to reach a verdict. In a criminal case, the unanimous agreement of all 12 jurors is required.

https://www.courts.ca.gov › ...

About the Trial Process - Jury Service - California Courts


This is currently saying only a 10% chance of Trump being acquitted, if anyone disagrees.

Personally I'm still trying to figure out how likely a hung jury is.

@Joshua I'm curious how they're going to find 12 unbiased individuals

@ChrisEdwards I don't think they will!

@Joshua I think this is saying “if the case is resolved before Jan 5th, it is 5:1 likely to be resolved against Trump”. You can’t disentangle the conditional here.

This case is generally considered the most serious of Trump's four cases, and the most likely to result in a felony conviction before the election.

If trump is convicted of a felony, the markets believe he is much less likely to win the election:




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