On which charges will Donald Trump be convicted in the January 6th Federal Case?
1.4k
2025
44%
Conspiracy to defraud the United States
50%
Conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding
40%
Obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding
32%
Conspiracy against rights

If Trump is found guilty or pleads guilty to one of these charges, it resolves yes. If he is acquitted of a charge or the charge are dropped/dismissed/etc, that charge resolves no. This market is only about initial conviction, it does not account for post-conviction appeals, pardons, sentencing, etc.

For context:

Wikipedia Article

NYT Summary and Annotated Indictment

NPR Summary:

  • one count of conspiracy to defraud the United States applies to Trump's repeated and widespread efforts to spread false claims about the November 2020 election while knowing they were not true and for allegedly attempting to illegally discount legitimate votes all with the goal of overturning the 2020 election, prosecutors claim in the indictment.

  • one count of conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding was brought due to the alleged organized planning by Trump and his allies to disrupt the electoral vote's certification in January 2021.

  • one count of obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding is tied to Trump and his co-conspirators' alleged efforts after the November 2020 election until Jan. 7, 2021, to block the official certification proceeding in Congress.

  • one count of conspiracy against rights refers to Trump and his co-conspirators alleged attempts to "oppress, threaten and intimidate" people in their right to vote in an election.

The trial is currently scheduled for march, but is expected to be delayed. However, it is still likely to begin before the election and some conviction is considered very possible.

These resolution rules may be updated within the spirit of the question. I am not a legal expert and am open to suggestions of what exact terminology I should be using to ask this question.

Note that this market will last until the end of the case, unlike some other markets which ask whether Trump will be found guilty before the election.

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